This leaflet was written on short notice, but it covers most of the major points.

A few facts are starting emerge as far as the US bombing Iran:

1. The bombing was partially effective, but not fully so. Even the 30,000 lb. “bunker buster” bombs did not accomplish what
   

   This aerial photo shows that the U.S. was apparently unable to exactly locate the bunker buster bombs in such a way as one bomb landed exactly on the crater caused by the previous one.

   Trump claimed it did. In order for that to be fully effective, they would have had to drop one bomb after another into the exact same hole. Aerial photographs show that they came close in two sets of targets at Fordow, but didn’t get it exactly on target. That means what while it did cause severe damage, it did not penetrate all the way through the mountain.

2. Iran had prepared for the attacks by moving the nuclear fuel off site. Newsweek, among others, reported “unusual
   

   This aerial photo shows trucks lined up outside the Fordo plant shortly before the US bombed that plant.

   activity” around the site in the day or so before the strike. Then, after the strike, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has reported no increase in radiation around the sites following the hits. The most logical explanation for this is that the nuclear fuel had been removed.

IRI response
Nobody really knows how the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) government will respond. Foreign Affairs is the most serious journal for US capitalism. This article of theirs makes that uncertainty perfectly clear. There are several different and competing factors driving the IRI response. The IRI must maintain and satisfy its base, no matter how narrow it may be. That base includes the Iran Revolutionary Guard (IRG) and the Islamic fanatics. Satisfying that base means posing as the true keepers of Islam, as opposed to Saudi Arabia. Behind that rhetoric lies the true aim of the IRI, which is becoming the dominant power in the region, again as opposed to both Saudi Arabia and Israel. It has nothing to do with defending the Palestinians. The IRI has never done anything of significance to defend Palestinian rights. But satisfying that base meant that the IRI had to respond. The main question was whether their response was going to be a serious one, or whether it would be largely performative as they did in response to israel’s previous attacks in 2024.

It now seems that they will respond in the latter fashion. They have attacked a few US military bases in Qatar, but before those attacks they gave Qatar a warning. That meant that they gave the US a warning ,and the US prepared for it by evacuating those bases. In other words, the IRI made sure not to kill any US soldiers as that would have led to a sharp response by Trump and company.

In turn, this allows Trump to ignore that attack. By doing so, he can avoid getting more involved in this war. That will largely silence his isolationalist and anti-Semitic critics like Steve Bannon and Marjorie Taylor Greene. It will also further enable Trump to bring some of the doubters inside his own administration into line. First and foremost that means the Putin supporting Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of National Intelligence. Added: In fact, it could well be that the whole thing was performative on both sides. Trump’s bombing satisfied his war hawk supporters (including some Democrats) while his hard core like Greene can now stop criticizing his attacks. In addition, it seems he may well have let the IRI know in advance when the attack would occur, thereby enabling them to remove their nuclear fuel before Fodor was attacked. It would not surprise me at all if it came out that there was an informal/unofficial understanding between Trump and the IRI that this is what will happen.

The Straits of Hormuz. 20% of world oil production passes through there.

The IRI says it will now close the Straits of Hormuz. 20% of world oil production passes through those streets so if they did so that would have a huge impact on world oil prices. The question is will they be able to accomplish that without shutting down the surrounding US military bases? And if they mine the straits, and the US sends in mind sweepers, will Iran attack those US ships?

Meanwhile, Israel continues to attack Iran, and Iran continues to respond. Another question is whether Iran will run out of rockets before Israel runs out of air defense capacity.

The revolution in Iran may hold a key to the future.

Nearly completely lost in the shuffle is the effect on and role of the working class, first and foremost the Iranian working class. Millions of Iranian workers together with women and other oppressed groups have played a heroic role in building the women life freedom movement. In fact, up until just a week or so ago, there had been a huge strike of the Iran Truck drivers which had to a great extent paralyze the entire country. Nobody outside of Iran aside from a tiny minority of leftist, give a damn about this heroic movement. Here in the San Francisco Bay area a group called Bay Area.4 Iran held a series of rallies during the time of the height of the movement. Any run. Myself and one or two other people from the former group Ukraine, socialist solidarity campaign, attended those rallies. We were the only non-Iranian people on the left who were there. And just yesterday they left held a rally opposing the US and

Iran truckers were on strike until just a few weeks ago.

Israeli attacks on that country. There was no mention of the movement inside Iran itself.

This is despite the fact that, in my view, the revolution inside Iran hold the key to unlocking the crisis of the entire region. That is because that revolution is not influenced either by religious fundamentalism or by Putin and company. All workers, and especially all working class oriented, socialist, must defend and support the Iranian revolution. At this time that means first of all opposing the Israeli and US attacks on Iran. Those attacks have largely silenced the movement inside the country. We can do so also by publicizing the woman life freedom movement.

Opposing those attacks has nothing at all to do with supporting the repressive and reactionary IRI government. It has everything to do with opposing the complete domination of the region by the genocidal state of Israel. As far as Iran’s developing nuclear weapons: Of course it is complete hypocrisy for the U.S. and Israel to prohibit that. After all, Israel is one of the most rogue states in the world, and it has nuclear weapons. But a nuclear armed Iran would not stop Israel. All it would do would be to further nuclear proliferation and sooner or later some fanatic-led government would use those weapons. That would open the door to generall nucleaar annihilation.

Working class socialist in the United States and elsewhere also have something to add from our own perspective. The divisions between Arabs and Iranians might reflect some prejudices within the Arab and Iranian populations, but they can be overcome once the common interest are clearly explained. If they aren’t overcome, and they truly working in class, socialist movement begins to develop throughout the region, that would me massive setback for all the ruling classes in the region and beyond That includes a setback for US, Russian, and Chinese imperialism. It would also be a huge boost to the workers movement here in the United States as it would set an example for US workers and for workers everywhere.

Oaklandsocialist has regularly covered events in Iran. For past articles, see here.

This leaflet was written on short notice, but it covers most of the major points.