Trump’s victory in the Iowa caucus was a lot stronger than many people realize. To his 51% must be added the 7.7% of Ramaswamy votes. In fact, once DeSantis falls by the wayside, most of his voters (21.2% in the Iowa results) will go to Trump since DeSantis’s appeal was that he would be even more successful in carrying out the Trump agenda.
Nor should those who oppose Trump be comforted by the fact that only 15% of registered Republicans showed up to caucus. As one (Republican) construction worker told a friend of mine, “no I didn’t go. It’s damn cold and everybody knew Trump was going to win anyway.” In fact, by polling time it was -30 degrees with the wind chill factor, the coldest ever for that event.
The talking heads
Nevertheless, the Democrats continue to bury their heads in the sand. Former U.S. senator-turned-political-pundit Clair McCaskill (from Missouri) “explained” why Biden was going to win. Talking on MSNBC’s Alex Wagner show last night, McCaskill said that Biden “is really good at relating to normal people.” He represents “integrity, normality, stability, getting results for you,” vs. the “chaos” that Trump represents. McCaskill’s fellow ostrich, Stuart Stevens of the Lincoln Project (never Trump Republicans) confidently predicted that Biden will win by an even bigger margin than he did in 2020.
These pundits totally miss the mark. In fact, from war to inflation, it’s Biden who represents chaos to millions of American voters. The fact that the current president cannot affect the global price of oil (the main driver of inflation) is irrelevant to most voters. And as for global chaos, that too is inherent in the capitalist system today.
One Trump supporter in Iowa explained her thinking, and that of millions of others: “You want someone strong, globally, so that it creates mutual respect with other countries, and maybe a little bit of fear. Yes, it’s true, not everyone likes him. It’s good not to be liked. Being strong is better. You gotta be a little crazy, maybe, to make sure other countries respect and fear us. And he can run the country like a business, and they will leave him alone.”
The question of image also plays into this. Biden simply looks old. His every movement projects age as does his speech itself. And U.S. voters are tremendously swayed by image.
The most recent poll (taken mid-January) shows Trump leading Biden 50% to 48%. (Haley leads by even more.)
Polls pretty accurately predicted the result of the Iowa caucuses.
Some on the left dismiss these polls. “The polls are always wrong,” they say (except when the polls show something they like). But the Iowa polls pretty accurately predicted the outcome there. Nor does Trump even have to win more popular votes than Biden. In 2016, Trump was elected with 46% of the popular vote vs. 48% for Hillary Clinton.
Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza is also harming Biden in a way that it does not for whichever Republican candidate emerges. That’s because the Republican leaning voters are more or less united in supporting Israel but the Democratic leaning voters are divided. As the NY Times poll shows, even among young voters there is a significant minority who support Israel. So, whichever way Biden leans, he’s going to lose voters.
Whichever way Biden leans, he will lose support.
A huge question mark is the economy, for which any sitting president gets the blame or credit. Right now, inflation is moderating while unemployment remains low. The war in SouthWest Asia North Africa (SWANA) adds an additional element of instability. Already the Houthis have come close to stopping shipping through the Red Sea. Currently, about 12% of global seaborne oil trade passes through that route. Rerouting it around the tip of southern Africa adds time and money. The real danger to the world economy is the Strait of Hormuz (controlled by Iran). Up to about 30% of global consumption of oil passes by the Strait. If Israel provokes a wider war with Iran, it seems likely that Iran would close the Strait. In that case, oil prices – meaning inflation – would skyrocket. That would probably guarantee a Trump victory in November.
In general, Biden is a creature of the past. He thinks that the Israel of today can return to the days of the Israel of Golda Meir. He thinks that the Republican Party of today can be returned to the days of the Republican Party of 20 or 30 years ago. In fact, his very appeal when he ran in 2020 was based on exactly that – restore the days of old.
It would be just as foolish to confidently predict a Trump victory as to predict the opposite. However, the continued support for Trump and his complete domination of the Republican Party is part of a global phenomenon. We see something similar in Hungary (Orban), Turkey (Erdogan), India (Modi), Italy (Meloni), and more. In fact, Putin is the world leader in this trend. In a future article, we will discuss the causes for this rise in nationalist reaction and bigotry. Suffice it to say here that it involves the crises of both global capitalism and the world working class.
Categories: Perspectives, politics, United States
John, be aware of something. Trump’s victory was by a margin of 2,000 votes. Thats’ all. It could of *easily* gone the other way in so far as him getting <50% of the vote.
On inflation. The problem with covering inflation is that the people are still seeing the higher prices thus believe inflation is still a problem even though inflation by definition is dynamic and not static. Prices have to *change* to be inflationary. Inflation go to ZERO and people will still be pissed because the prices *remain* high and don't decline, as if they ever do. The longer the distance between high inflationary periods and a lower one the issue starts to fade as folks income goes up (which it has albeit not enough).
There is no evidence whatsoever that it could have “easily gone the other way”. As the article pointed out, all the polls showed that Trump was going to win. If David thinks there is a chance that Iowa won’t vote for the Republican candidate for president in 2024 (whoever that candidate may be), I’ll be happy to place a nice bet with him. I’ll even give him 2-1 odds.
Overall, the polls are not looking good for Biden. Maybe David is one of those on the left who dismisses the polls. He is mistaken.
As far as inflation: In the last few months, as inflation has eased and as wages have tended to rise, polls show that economic concerns have lessened. But it’s not simply a matter of what one’s paycheck can buy. Rapid inflation also cuts into the sense that things are more or less stable.
Many on the left dismiss Trump’s chances, as did almost everybody in 2016. That included me, but I learned from my mistake.
John, my own feeling that as of now, Trump is headed for a victory. The election is still far ahead. I don’t dismiss polls and your comment is akin to me stating “John is probably one of those persons who believe all polls…”. IMO, polls are mostly correct. In fact, the polls that stated Clinton was going to beat Trump in 2016 were correct, very much so. What they go wrong was how Trump was going to beat Clinton on a county-by-county basis in the key states. The overall polls were correct and predicted almost exactly the 3 million MORE votes that Clinton received over Trump. But only the LA Times actually was correct in the electoral count vote. I never dismiss polling, it is a valuable tool. It is why both campaigns employ small legions of pollsters to see where they are weakest.
In fact I think, *according the polls* that the economy in general and inflation specifically, are the first or second most important factors in the election and where Biden appears to be “failing” inspite of the fact that inflation has come down as you noted. But prices sill remain higher than before and that is why the polls reflect “inflation”.
Biden main problem is the ability of the GOP to focus on Biden’s failings at the border and re-framing the debate in the racist trope of an invasion. Biden simply has only been doing what the U.S. has always been doing which is to deport folks coming across the border. This is not new but despite 100s of thousands of deportees being sent back to Mexico…the perception are the “massive ways of illegal aliens” coming to the U.S., which, even Trump failed to stem. This issue, more than any other, is likely to do Biden in and cause him to lose the election.
In that case, how can you say that the results could have easily gone the other way? There is zero evidence for that.
As far as the rest: Yes, the border issue is crucial, but it’s far from the only issue. The central issue is that we live in a confusing and fragmenting world. Given the crisis in the working class, its near total absence as an independent force in society, a huge vacuum has developed. What tends to fill that vacuum are strongmen or women. That’s what we are seeing globally. Trump may be ahead of his time and, unlike some other figures (like Orban, for example), he is a self-absorbed idiot. But even the self absorption – narcissism – has its appeal to many.