The Trump/Vance/Miller Triumvirate is the real weapon of mass destruction!

Last night, Oaklandsocialist’s article warned of the Triumvirate’s coming attack on Iran. Within hours of our publication, that attack had begun. Here is our immediate analysis, with more coming as events unfold:

1. The attack on Iran by the Trump/Vance/Miller Triumvirate has nothing at all to do with support for the heroic Iranian revolution. The Triumvirate’s attack is about spreading the influence and power of the MAGA ethno-nationalist and reactionary political agenda plus the power and influence of US capitalism. Period.
2. Trump has called on the IRGC (the “Revolutionary Guard”) to lay down their arms. From here, it’s hard to see how they can since they are widely hated and would probably be killed by the Iranian people. At least that’s how it seems from here. The Trump/Vance/Miller Triumvirate has no problem working with the IRGC and Iran’s hated security police, the Basij, as long as these fascist murderers work under the control and follow the orders of the US Triumvirate.
3. The masses of those who composed the Iranian revolution will have to stay off the streets as they will face assaults from both the IRGC and the Basij on the ground and the US from the air. It’s also hard to see how the Iranian revolutionaries would in any way support either the US attack, nor regime change led by the US.
4. It seems the Triumvirate’s “plan” (if we want to dignify the Triumvirate’s approach with that word) is to topple the Iranian regime and use the MEK to bring in a new one. The MEK will have to have a central leader it can install. Who else can it be but Pahlavi? From all reports from Iran, popular support for either the MEK or Pahlavi is minimal at best. Therefore, any new regime of those forces will have to rely on both the US plus possibly old forces of the regime’s army and possibly even of the IRGC.
5. This means any new MEK/Pahlavi regime will be extremely unstable and unable to stand on its own two feet.
6. Possibly as part of the Triumvirate’s “plan” or as a possible other fallout could be the beginning of the breakup of Iran. Turkey’s regime, among others, will be horrified at this as it will be a step towards the development of an independent Kurdistan. Could Erdogan intervene militarily?
7. The US Triumvirate will have to send US troops into Iran. The Triumvirate’s plan is not to send in a mass invasion like what Bush did in Iraq, but just “advisors” and maybe a smaller strike force, similar to what they did in Venezuela but on a larger scale. This will necessarily draw the US forces even deeper into direct involvement.
   The Straits of Hormuz. Up to 25% of world oil supply passes through the Straits.
8. Iran will nearly certainly close the Straits of Hormuz. This will mean world oil priceswillskyrocket.
9. Domestically, the Triumvirate will accelerate and intensify its repression at home. That includes its intent to steal November’s midterm elections. Even the Triumvirate’s cancelling those elections altogether cannot be ruled out.
10. The Triumvirate’s invasion will be extremely unpopular among all wings of the US electorate, including its MAGA base, who was promised “no new wars”. This means that the more overtly fascist/Nazi supporting Carlson/Fuentes wing of the Republican Party will gain even further support.
    

    A message to all too many of the left in the US. They have a lot to account for.

11. This means that there will be intensified attacks on people of color (especially but not only immigrants of color), women, LGBTQ people, Jewish people, and the left. It will also include attacks against the unions, especially wherever the unions oppose the employers. These attacks will come not only from the DOJ, but also physical assaults from the Carlson/Fuentes paramilitary forces.
12. The Carlson/Fuentes fascist forces will pose as opponents of the war. As such, there will be a tendency of socialists and other left opponents of the war to coalesce even further with these fascist/Nazi forces. That will be an even greater disaster since those fascist/Nazi forces will at some point turn to the very same physical assaults we outlined above. An entirely new, working class socialist movement has to be developed.

Update: CNN is now reporting that Khameini has been killed and that cheers can be heard from homes and apartments throughout Tehran. It sounds credible. The US news is also claiming that during the height of the protests that many in Iran were hoping the US would attack their attackers – the IRGC and the Basij. We have no idea whether this is accurate or not, but we do remember that initially after the overthrow of the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq that there were celebrations in that country. Any initial illusions about the US intervention there were rapidly shattered. While it’s possible that the US Triumvirate won’t send massive numbers of ground troops into Iran, the real purpose of its military attack will be quickly made crystal clear to the overwhelming majority of the people in Iran.

All the points are explained more in depth in our article “As Trump plans to bomb Iran multiple dangers loom” and are doubly confirmed. We urge readers to take a look at that article if they have not done so already.

We are probably missing some points, and there will be more information coming out, but it was important to discuss the situation as it developed immediately. If readers find this article helpful, we urge you to take out a free subscription. Your name and contact information won’t be used for anything other than sending you an email when we publish new articles.