Trump/Project 2025 may be a lot weaker than we think. The capitalist base upon which it relies is weakening. This weakening base is happening in:

• The federal judiciary
• The federal law-enforcement agencies, including, but not limited to the FBI
• The US military, both at the top and within some layers of the enlisted soldiers
• There is also a serious weakening of support for Trump/Project 2025 within major sectors of the capitalist class itself.
• On top of that is the weakening of popular support.

Here is what is happening:

Weakening support within the capitalist class
A week after Zohran Mamdani won the race for New York City mayor, the New York Times published a column entitled: “1 Percenters, Quit Bickering About Mamdani and Focus on Trump” The author, Neil Barsky, is a former investment manager and a member of that exclusive one percenter club. He wrote: “The menace does not come from Mr. Mamdani or from Wall Street. It comes from the president of the United States, who is hellbent on inflicting real and lasting damage to the city.” Barsky called for New York’s “business elite”, labor, unions, and religious institutions to join together to oppose Trump‘s authoritarianism. He concluded by recognizing that the cultural and racial diversity is part and parcel of the driving economic power that is New York City: “New York City remains a symbol of cultural and racial diversity, economic, opportunity, and boundless creativity. It is in everyone’s interest to exist, federal intervention and authoritarianism. Our next mayor must not go it alone.”

Barsky is not alone among his brethren. The most determined and militant sector of the capitalist class is the Wall Street Journal editorial board. In recent weeks, they have published editorials condemning Trump‘s tariffs, editorials calling for “a much harder policy toward Russia”, and editorials criticizing Trump’s corrupt use of pardons for his own personal benefit, such as his pardon of Chinese government agent Changpeng Zhao.

All of this indicates a deep unease on the part of the capitalist class towards the Trump presidency. That unease is also seen in many of the major institutions through which capitalism rules, both within the government and without.

Catholic Church
With nearly 62,000,000 members, the Catholic Church is the largest church in the United States. Recently, the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops issued a special message which the New York Times characterized as “an unmistakable rebuke of the Trump administration and it’s cruel and punitive immigration crackdown.” According to the Times “a number of Bishops read the statement out loud in a powerful video message posted on YouTube.”

J Michael Luttig, a conservative Republican, he has been prominent in condemning Trump.

Federal judiciary
There is spreading discontent within the federal judiciary. A prominent critic of Trump has been the conservative, retired federal judge, J Michael Luttig. He Was recently interviewed for Puck News. In that interview, Luttig sharply condemned the Supreme Court’s abnormal use of the so-called shadow docket to make instant rulings without any explanation. This leaves the lower layers of the federal judiciary without guidelines. All of these rulings have been in Trump‘s favor. Luttig explains “the Supreme Court has acquiesced in his (Trump’s) constitutional lawlessness. If the Supreme Court ever does decide any of these cases, the damage to the Constitution and to the nation, will have long been done, and it’s irreparable…. Whenever the Supreme Court is deciding the most important questions possible under our Constitution without a single word of explanation, it is acting illegitimately. The Supreme Court itself is in a self-inflicted crisis today in America…. There is no other explanation” other than that they are doing it “out of favor for Donald Trump.” In other words, the Supreme Court is acting as an agent for Trump. Millions already know that, but this is coming from a judge who is highly respected within the judiciary. One could not get a sharper condemnation than that from inside the judiciary.

Luttig’s comments were supplemented by former senior federal judge Mark Wolf, who wrote an article in the Atlantic magazine, entitled “Why I am resigning” He wrote “I no longer can bear to be restrained by what judges can say publicly or do outside the courtroom. President Donald Trump is using the law for partisan purposes, targeting his adversaries while sparing his friends and donors from investigation, prosecution, and possible punishment. this is contrary to everything that I have stood for in my more than 50 years in the Department of Justice and on the bench. The White House’s assault on the rule of law is so deeply disturbing to me that I feel compelled to speak out. Silence, for me, is now intolerable.” Wolf also took to task the Trump majority on the Supreme Court, something that would have been totally unacceptable were he to remain on the bench and is even very unusual for a former federal judge. (Wolf’s position had already been assigned, so Trump does not get to make an additional appointment.)

These attitudes must be rampant throughout the federal judiciary and indicate a division between the lower courts and the Supreme Court.

FBI Agents Association blasting their chief, Kash Patel. Even Fox News had to report on this.

Federal law enforcement
It’s not just the judiciary. A keystone of federal law-enforcement is the FBI. Recently Reuters news agency reported on the FBI Agents Association, blasting FBI chief Kash Patel. The particular action that motivated their criticism was Patel’s having fired some 30 FBI agents who had worked on the different cases against Donald Trump under the Biden administration. The government shut down, must have also rankled the FBI agents, who were required to come to work, but were not paid. Unlike Trump and his cronies, they do not have huge wealth they can fall back upon. Their incomes range from $68,000-$112,000 per year.

It is not just the self interest. Their main role is to maintain order and stability within the capitalist system. Trump’s increasing sweeps of immigrants is undermining that role. (Those sweeps are, of course, being directed and driven by the fanatic Stephen Miller.) The N.Y. Times reported on what is happening: The “Department of Homeland Security has diverted thousands of federal agents from their normal duties to focus on arresting undocumented immigrants, undermining a wide range of law enforcement operations. This includes investigations of sex crimes against children, “and a national security probe into the black market for Iranian oil sold to finance terrorism….” They also report that Homeland securities investigation has about 7000 agents “who normally investigate transnational criminal organizations and other high-level lawbreakers.” Many of those agents have been reassigned to round up immigrants as have analyst who assist in money laundering, and counterterrorism cases. To give a concrete idea of what is happening, here is one example: “earlier this year, special agents at homeland, security investigations found online videos, showing violence, sexual abuse of an unidentified young child.“ Those agents were taken off the case in order to help round up immigrants.

The FBI is not there to help the working class. They are there to maintain stability, but that is not possible with rampant, sexual abuse of children, rampant, terrorism, etc., and most FBI agents, for example the ones who were investigating those videos of violent sexual abuse of children, must have a certain dedication to what they are doing. One can just imagine how frustrated, not to say demoralized they must feel being pulled off these cases just to help round up immigrants. In other words, there must be a deep unease, a discontent, a lack of confidence in the upper echelon’s of their agency just as there is in the federal judiciary.

US military
That same NY Times article reports that something similar is happening in the Coast Guard, one of whose tasks is to interdict drug traffickers that come in by boat. Coast Guard resources, including Coast Guard airplanes, are now also being diverted to round up immigrants. That is not what members of the Coast Guard joined up for.

Chair of Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine.
Even he is dissatisfied with Pete Hegseth.

There is also the military brass. A recent report from Yahoo News reports “leading military chiefs have lashed out at Pete Hegseth‘s plan to overhaul the country’s defense strategy, according to a report these criticisms even include Trump‘s chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine.” The issues stems from Hegseth’s plans to rewrite the national defense strategy to list Homeland defense as a national top priority. This is at the cost of continuing to focus on global security threats from China as it has for years. It also includes reducing the US military presence in Europe and Africa. In other words, this is part of Trump’s plans to move towards martial law domestically at the cost of defending US capitalism‘s interest internationally. This is not what the military brass was trained to believe in and do.

According to reports from some rank and file soldiers, the view from below is mixed. Many of the newer recruits tend to be ideological MAGAites, who support Trump and Project 2025. However, among the troops that have been in the military for a year or so there is deepening dissatisfaction with Trump. So all of this means increased divisions within the US military itself, probably in part along racial and gender lines.

U.S. warships steaming around in big circles off the coast of Venezuela.

Venezuela
And now, in addition to the military being prepared for domestic repression, it is being prepared for a possible attack on Venezuela. Trump and Hegseth have sent the US‘s most advanced aircraft carrier along with around 12,000 troops on nearly a dozen navy ships to the Caribbean, off the coast of Venezuela. The claim is that it is to interdict drug traffickers, but nobody believes that. It is to launch a possible military strike on Venezuela. During his first administration Trump had suggested an invasion of Venezuela, but “his” generals, such as Mark Milley, advised him against it because they knew it would be a disaster for US capitalism. Now those advisors have been replaced by the likes of Pete Hegseth. It would be interesting to know what is the role of the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Caine, considering that the Yahoo news article reported that he has been among those officers who have criticized the Trump administration.

Trump with his buddy and procurer of young girls, Jeff Epstein

Epstein Files
One of the motivations for a possible military strike, and/or outright invasion of Venezuela is to distract attention from Trump‘s domestic crisis with the Epstein files. This crisis has weakened him at home, as have developments with the US economy. Even support for his immigration policies have declined significantly. A symptom of his weakening has been the clashes between him and extreme right wing Trump loyalist, Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene. Among other things, in her interview with CNN‘s Dana Bash. Greene criticized Trump’s foreign entanglements, which she sees as turning away from America First. If the US does launch a strike or an invasion of Venezuela, that will be wildly unpopular, not only among the Democrats, but among a wide layer of the MAGA America Firsters.

However, no wing of the Republican Party nor any wing of the capitalist class will lead a revolt against Trump/Project 2025 nor will any wing of the federal government – not the judiciary, nor any wing of federal law enforcement, nor the US military. So the question is, what are the chances for a mass revolt from below.

Trump is “underwater” on every issue, even what were his strengths – immigration and the economy.

The opinion poles tell us a lot. Look at the latest polls as reported on CNN. 

The Epstein files issue is not going away, and this has been a major blow to the credibility of Donald Trump. That even includes among the MAGA base because many of them have been focused on the issue of child pornography and child sex trafficking ever since QAnon was claiming that Hillary Clinton was involved in this all the way back10 years ago.

Zohran Mamdani
The election of Zohran Mamdani For mayor of New York City also says a lot. He won an outright majority despite the tens of millions of dollars donated to the campaign of Cuomo. There was also all the media propaganda claiming that Mamdani is an antisemite. Maybe even more important than the election result may be the fact that that his campaign seems to have brought tens of thousands of radicalized young people into activity. Hopefully many more are yet to come.

ICE protests
There have been protest against ICE invasions in Los Angeles and Chicago. Once Mamdani takes office such an invasion seems likely. Protest there would be far greater. The key question is to what extent such protest will be based in major sectors of the working class itself. As we pointed out in our report on the No Kings March in Oakland. The absence of the organized working class, which is to say the unions, has been critical. For this the blame must fall on the union leadership. When and how even the beginnings of a revolt within the unions against this cowardly role of the union leadership is a major question.

Conclusion
In conclusion let us return to that article addressed to the “1 Percenters” by former investment manager Neil Barsky. He writes in relation to the so-called business elite, and the Mamdani Movement, “I propose that both sides agreed to a truce, based on the simple proposition that when it comes to fighting authoritarianism, there is safety in numbers. United we stand. Divided we fall.” Using language of the labor movement itself, what he is suggesting is that Mamdani and the Mamdani Movement drop its economic demands in order to secure the support of the “business elite”. In other words, a cross-class coalition whose program the “business elite” determines. It means maintaining the economic status quo – rampant profits for the capitalists; continued poverty and economic hardship for the working class majority.This would mean a movement not based on mass defiance, on actual disruption of society as a whole. The leadership of the unions is already on board with that. Barsky also says that when the “business elite” takes a lead that the labor unions will follow. In other words, the union leadership is following the lead of the capitalists. At least he has that right! The question is to what extent will Mamdani and the Mamdani Movement itself be drawn in. We will discuss that in a future article. We urge readers to subscribe to our blog in order not to miss it.