Kamala harris and Tim Walz. The contrast with Trump and Vance is clear.

What would it mean for Trump to return to the White House? Trump’s base among the fascist Christian nationalists or his encouraging assaults on the media is all one needs to answer that question. His previous administration was a learning experience for him and he spent the nearly four years since then applying what he learned and consolidating his base. All this is outlined in our article on Trump’s plans to overturn the upcoming election.

The cult of Donald Trump

The Trump cult is based on white and male resentment, bigotry, bullying and fantasy/anti-science thinking.

The only one who can keep Trump out of the White House is Kamala Harris. 

Since she replaced Biden, the most important ingredient she and her running mate Tim Walz have added to the campaign is a sense of hope, which comes from her energy. Her campaign appeals to a desire for democracy and some sort of fact-based thinking. This contrast with the Trump campaign should not be underestimated, but is it enough?

6.3 million people watched this CNN interview of Harris and Walz.

Harris’s campaign has been criticized for its vagueness as well as absence of doing interviews. Finally, on Thursday (Aug. 29), she and Walz did an interview  with CNN’s Dana Bash. That interview was unsatisfactory, partly due to the approach of Bash, who started out the interview with the ridiculous question, “what are you going to do on your first day in office?” What is Harris supposed to say, “unpack my bags”? Here is a summary of her interview on more serious questions:

• On the economy, Harris played up the issue of “price gouging” again. (See below for more on this.) 
• She somewhat differentiated herself from Trump but also went along with the campaign against “illegal immigration”. 
• She made all the nice sounding noises about global warming. 
• She committed herself to including a Republican in her cabinet, which shows the concern of all the Democrats to have a reliable capitalist partner and rival in order to reestablish political stability. 
• She was asked about Israel/Palestine; see analysis below. 
• Bash asked the usual silly personal questions like, “what was it like” for Harris when Biden first informed her he was dropping out of the race, and questions about the Harris and Walz family.

Economy
All the polls show that the economy is the most important issue for most voters, and they tend to blame the current administration for high prices. Harris has tried to deflect criticism by talking about “price gouging”, while at the same time defending the Biden administration’s economic policies. 

What is “price gouging” other than a harsh name for the fact that every self-respecting capitalist charges prices according to what the market will bear. During the pandemic both production and the supply chains were severely restricted. However, the impact was cushioned by the fact that the government gave a total of $814 billion to households in covid relief money. Normally, much of such money would be spent on travel (meaning increased use of gas among other things), entertainment, etc. Once the severity of the pandemic ended, or seemed to end, the pent up demand increased. That was true globally. Biden added the $850 bn. Infrastructure Spending Act, of which$350 bn. has already been allotted to various states. So increased demand met constricted supply and every industry behaved as capitalism expects they would do: They raised prices. So far, the US inflation rate  is 2.9% this year. Globally, it is forecasted  to be 5.9% globally.

Except for the unique period of the post WW II upswing, the capitalist economy has shifted from recession and high unemployment to inflation and back ever since the Great Depression of the 1930s. As a capitalist politician, Harris cannot explain that.

Furthermore, as always, the voting public in the U.S. gives the blame or credit to the sitting president for whatever happens in the economy. Are oil prices too high? Blame the president, despite the fact that those prices are set at the world level. Is unemployment low? Credit the president, despite the fact that the US economy is tied to the world economy by a million different threads.

Twenty-eight percent of voters see “prices” as being the  most important issue. However, the percent of those who trust Trump more on the issue vs. trusting Harris has slipped.  Now 43% trust Trump more and 40% trust Harris more.

Harris has also called for raising taxes on the ultra rich. However, according to the Wall St. Journal, she has close ties to a series of top capitalists, including Silicon Valley investors and the president of the World Bank Group and American Express CEO. Some of these are now pushing back against that call on taxes. Overall, Harris’s capitalist base vs. her left populist appeal results in her general vagueness about her economic plans, such as her feel-good calls for an “opportunity economy” and “building the economy from the middle class out”.

Abortion
More helpful to Harris is the issue of abortion rights. According to the NY Times,  the percentage of women who say that abortion rights is their top issue went from 17% in May to 22% at present. Trump’s waffling on the issue reflects the fact that he realizes it’s a losing issue for him but on the other hand he depends on the anti-abortion fanatics as an important part of his base. This promises to help Harris, possibly even be decisive in getting her elected.

Foreign policy: Ukraine
Except when a war directly impacts U.S. citizens, foreign policy rarely is a decisive issue for U.S. voters. For US and world capitalism, however, it is crucial. Two key issues are Ukraine and Israel/Palestine.

Biden has been extremely cautious in sending aid to Ukraine. He delayed sending crucial weapons systems and equipment for months and months. To this day, he has prohibited Ukraine from hitting military targets deeper inside Russia. This has enabled Russia to centralize supplies wherever it wants, just so long as it is more than a few miles from its border. 

As opposed to Trump, Harris would continue aiding Ukraine. Whether she continues his cautious approach is the question. Harris is not tied to Biden’s 50 year policy of caution and compromise, and I think it’s possible she would be more aggressive as far as allowing Ukraine to win… if it is not too late now.

Foreign policy: Israel/Palestine
More complex for Harris is the issue of Israel/Palestine. US capitalism needs Israel because that is its only stable and reliable ally in the region. On the other hand, Netanyahu’s expansionist policies, his genocidal war against people in Gaza, and his ethnic cleansing in both Gaza and the West Bank, complicate things for US capitalism. They weaken support for US capitalism throughout the region. The more blatant are Netanyahu’s policies, the more that elevates support for Chinese capitalism vs. US capitalism in the region. Biden would like to reign in Netanyahu, and so would Harris for this reason. The only way to do so is to impose conditions on Israel’s use of US arms (which shouldn’t be sent at all!) Their problem is that they need to build a base of support here in the US in order to do so. This requires full exposure of all the crimes against humanity that Israel is committing, but once that happens, popular support for Israel is likely to collapse entirely.

Palestinian delegates to DNC hold a sit-in protest over refusal to allow one of them speaking time. Harris’s treatment of them was really shabby.

That’s partly why the Palestinian delegates were treated so shabbily at the Democratic National Convention. All sorts of Republicans were given speakers’ time, but not the Palestinian Democratic Party delegates. That’s also why in her recent interview with CNN’s Dana Bash Harris was so weak in criticizing Israel. She gave unequivocal support for Israel’s “right to defend itself”, which is code for Israel’s right to commit war crimes. All she could say in criticism of Israel was that “far too many innocent Palestinians have been killed.”

Harris’s election strategy also comes into play. That strategy in part rests on hiving off a layer of middle of the road Republicans, the likes of those who supported Adam Kinzinger (who spoke at the DNC) and Nikki Haley. She figures that those who already oppose Israel will vote for her anyway. 

The polls
Among major pollsters, the Times Siena poll was the most accurate in 2022 with an 88% success rate in predicting the outcome and almost no bias towards the Republicans or Democrats. As of August 10, they give Harris a 4 point lead in Georgia and a 5 point lead in Arizona with Nevada being a “toss up” among likely voters. Harris also has  a four point lead over Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin among likely voters. This was before the Democratic convention and it’s very likely that Harris has gained further since then. As of August 30,  Harris has a 3.8 point lead nationally over Trump. This poll gives a breakdown by state.

The CNN focus group

CNN focus group
After Harris’s convention speech, CNN convened a focus group of eight “undecided” Pennsylvania voters whom CNN has been tracking. Of that group 6 are white and two are black; six are men and two are women; there were three UAW members including one local president; most were workers workers or retired. Of the eight, seven rated her speech between a “B” and an “A”. Six of the seven said they’d decided to vote for Harris. One, a real estate investor (who is also a black man) said he’d decided to vote for Trump, whom he said was “tougher” on foreign policy. The UAW local president said, “I really liked [Harris’s] confidence. She seemed presidential.” He also liked her strong pro-military stance. The voter who remained “undecided” was a youngish white woman.

There is no reason to think that these formerly “undecided” voters are unrepresentative of a wider layer of voters. If that is the case, then we can expect Harris to widen her leads in the coming months, barring some crisis. Such crises could include an economic crisis (or even a significant worsening of the economy) or an expanded war by Israel against Hezbollah and/or Iran. Either or both of these would be blamed on Biden and Harris.

A very close race
Overall, it is astounding how close this election seems to be. The Christian Nationalist fascists are estimated to be “only” 20% of the U.S. population. Yet tens of millions of others rate how much they have to pay at the grocery store as being more important than maintaining democratic rights. This reflects the crisis in the U.S. working class about which Oaklandsocialist has commented often. The main source of this crisis is the war waged against all the best traditions of the US labor movement, a war that has been led by the union leadership. This is an issue Oaklandsocialist has discussed repeatedly. 

Another major question is to what extent will the Republicans be able to disrupt and/or overturn election results. Oaklandsocialist addressed that question in this article. 

Coming next: an in depth assessment of the election campaigns of Jill Stein and Cornel West, both of whom have documented ties to Trump and Putin.

Kamala harris and Tim Walz. The contrast with Trump and Vance is clear.