Convicted!

The United States now has a former president who is a convicted felon. He adds this to the list of his other accomplishments – convicted of rape, successful lawsuits for slander, and twice impeached. What does it say, though, that immediately after his latest accomplishment he allegedly raised $35 million in small donations?

Before we get to that, let’s review the latest case, which is somewhat complex:

The case revolves around falsification of business records. That falsification lay in payments to Trump’s former lawyer and “fixer” Michael Cohen, which the records listed as legal fees. In fact, the payments were reimbursement to Cohen for his outlays to keep the Stormy Daniels story out of the media prior to the 2016 election. If it could be shown that Trump was involved – that he at least gave the okay – then this in itself would only be a misdemeanor. If it could be shown that this falsification of business records was done to further another crime, then it would be a felony. The alleged further crime was various violations of both state and federal election laws.

The defense fought every allegation. They claimed that Trump was not involved in the falsification of records, that the payments to Cohen were in fact for legal services, and that in any case they wanted to keep the Stormy Daniels story out of the press not for his campaign for president but because he wanted to protect his marriage. They even claimed that Trump never had an affair with Daniels. That claim opened the door to Daniels giving lurid details about the one night stand, including that she spanked Trump on the butt with a newspaper.

The case was not a clear-cut because there was no smoking gun – no forensic proof that Trump knew about and was involved in the decision to falsify the records, but in the end no other explanation, no other story line of the events, made any sense.

Trump’s reaction was predictable: “This was a disgrace. This was a rigged trial by a conflicted judge who was corrupt as a rigged trial, a disgrace. They wouldn’t give us a venue change. We were at 5 percent or 6 percent in this district, in this area. This was a rigged, disgraceful trial.”

The editorial board of the Wall St. Journal gave a slightly more subtle version of the same message: “Thursday’s guilty verdict wasn’t entirely surprising, given the jury pool in Manhattan,” they wrote. In other words, an all Trump supporting jury would have been the only way of getting a “fair” trial. The WSJ editoral board goes through the complexities of the case but never really argues that Trump was innocent. (As far as “the jury was composed of prejudiced Democrats” line: One of the jurors said he got his news from Trump’s Truth Social.) Then comes the WSJ editors’ conclusion:

“The conviction sets a precedent of using legal cases, no matter how sketchy, to try to knock out political opponents, including former Presidents. Mr. Trump has already vowed to return the favor. If Democrats felt like cheering Thursday when the guilty verdict was read, they should think again. Mr. Bragg might have opened a new destabilizing era of American politics, and no one can say how it will end.”

In other words, if Trump gets back in office by hook or by crook and then carries out a general attack on democratic rights, it’s all the Democrats’ fault. I used to think that there was no wing of the US capitalist class that supported Trump. I still think that if we conceive of that as any particular sector – the financial sector, the oil industry, the tech sector, etc. But what is becoming clear is that increasing numbers of capitalists have completely dismissed the danger of a united working class rebellion. Tech billionaire Nick Hanauer’s 2014 warning that “The pitchforks are coming for us plutocrats” was a false warning, according to some capitalists. So now we have a few oil industry capitalists worrying about global warming caused regulations and a few others seeing the opportunity to go on an all-out assault and even if they don’t like Trump one bit, he’s better than a Democrat who comes under reformist pressures. Especially when there’s even more billions to be saved in new tax “reforms”.

As for Trump’s popularity: It’s possible that a sliver of voters large enough to swing the elections results will turn to Biden as a result of the latest Trump conviction. But that’s not the end of the matter. Within hours of his conviction, Trump claims he’s raised $35 million in small donations. Those donors feel the same as Trump – that any limitations on their power to bully and suppress others represents oppression and if a majority turns against them it’s all a “hoax”, the results have been “fixed”. The MAGA Republicans will not go away no matter what the results of the 2024 election. It’s true that they’ll feel even more empowered if their man gets back in, but if he doesn’t they’ll feel even more embittered and resentful.