On March 26, RFK Jr. brought his presidential campaign to Oakland… kind of. I was there, but RFK onluy showed up via teleconference. The fact that he wouldn’t set foot in Oakland didn’t bother the thousands who turned out, most of whom appeared to me to also be from out of town. I mention this not to imply that they cannot come to Oakland but that RFK Jr. seems to have no base here in this predominantly working class and people of color city. I was there and spoke with several RFK supporters. Some of those conversations are recorded in this video (which also contains other footage) and some of them are commented on below.

• I spoke with three young guys who said they were from Eastern Washington State. One said a big issue for him was “free speech”,
  

  A few photos of RFK’s rally in Oakland. Also see below for video.

  which was a theme that RFK sounded also. When I asked him about “free speech” in relation to DeSantis’s book bans in Florida, though, he had no concerns other than the fact that he thought young children should not be introduced to ideas about sex at too young of an age. Apparently “free speech” refers to the freedom to make sexist or racist comments or, in RFK’s case, the freedom to mislead people about science. This same individual was also concerned about “Second Amendment rights”. I explained to him that the Second Amendment had nothing to do with an individual’s right to own or carry a gun; it was about building what was the equivalent of the National Guard at that time. He had nothing to say about that. Another in this group was a union plumber. He is a strong union supporter and was quite up in the air about supporting RFK.

• I spoke with an apparently well off 75 year old woman from Santa Cruz. She is a social liberal, but believes the 2020 election was stolen by Biden. She doesn’t like Trump “because of how he treats women.” She said that “both parties are corrupt”. I asked her about RFK’s support from billionaire and extreme right wing Tim Mellon. She was aware of that support and is not bothered by it. She said that RFK hadn’t made any compromises to gain that support.
• I spoke with a middle age black man who is a lukewarm RFK supporter. Somehow we got to talking about Ukraine. He believes that both the US and Russia should leave Ukraine alone.
• I spoke with a 30-something year old out of work biologist who is a strong RFK supporter. I asked him what he would think if the unions built a working class party. He responded that he believes the unions stifle initiative. He voted Libertarian in 2020. He scoffed at the idea that January 6 was a coup attempt; he thinks it was just a few uncontrolled nuts or something like that. He believes there is no real difference between the Republicans and Democrats. He is not afraid of Trump and dismissed Trump’s critics by saying that “everybody thought Trump would start a war” if he got elected. When I pointed out that Jill Stein had actually called Trump the “peace candidate” he had nothing to say about that.
• The most interesting conversation I had was with a young guy who was wearing a “Free Palestine” t-shirt. We talked about that issue as well as about Ukraine. He agreed that Ukraine is basically in the same position as is Gaza. He is not committed to RFK. He was also the only one of two people I spoke with who lives in Oakland.

RFK speech
RFK’s speech was pretty boilerplate. A lot of it was aimed at the Trump crowd. For instance, he harped on the national debt, which is always a dog whistle for cutting social spending. He talked about free speech but didn’t mention the right to free speech for college student opponents of Israel or free speech in relation to DeSantis’s “don’t say gay” law or that governor’s book bans. So in this case “free speech” is just a nod to those whites who can’t use the “n word” or talk in openly disparaging ways about women or LGBTQ people anymore. RFK talked a lot about how Wall St. and the big banks control both parties, which was ironic for a couple of reasons:

1. First is the $20 million that far right wing billionaire Tim Mellon has donated to RFK’s campaign. This Mellon, heir of the fortune of his grandfather “Robber Baron” banker Andrew Mellon, has donated $152 million to right wing Republicans.
2. The other extreme irony – some might call it “hypocrisy” – lies in his choice of a running mate: Nicole Shanahan. A lawyer by training, she is a multi-millionaire Silicon Valley investor. In other words, from that exact sector of finance capital that RFK denounced.

RFK foreign policy
RFK markets himself as an anti-war candidate. Like other “anti-war” public figures, this means he opposes US aid to Ukraine. His position is close to that of Trump on the issue: According to The Hill, RFK believes that Russia has been “acting in good faith” in Putin’s efforts to end the war.

“Anti-war”, however, does not extend to opposing Israel’s war on the Palestinian people. Just a week ago, RFK is reported as having said that Israel is a “moral nation” and that its response to Hamas is “just”. He opposed Biden’s call for a ceasefire.

He didn’t mention either of these issues when he spoke, so he’s able to hide the fact that he is really just Trump Lite. But he’s drawing an enthusiastic crowd from people across the political spectrum How did this come about?

For 50 years, a huge swath of people in the US have seen their lives becoming increasingly precarious. Disaffection with both parties is rampant. Just as rampant is the crisis within the US working class, in which class consciousness is at an all time low when it comes to politics. That is accompanied by the rise in nationalism. Also, among white workers, at the very least a tolerance for racism has increased.

So here we come, once again, to the absence of a working class political party in the US, and for that we have to blame the role of the union leadership. They are so absent that almost nobody even thinks about them, but year in and year out, election after election, and even in between elections, they keep the unions tied to the Democrats like an embryo is tied to its mother by its umbilical cord. A left wing small mass working class party in the US would totally transform US politics. 

RFK and the sectarian left 
The basis for RFK’s campaign is that there is no real difference between the Republicans and the Democrats. That is what he says and that is what those I talked with said. Ironically, that is also what the sectarian left says also. They both ignore – or in at least one case outright deny – Trump’s links with outright fascists of all sort. They both ignore the fact that Trump has totally taken over the Republican Party. And in fact, on one key issue they are both wrong: The Republican Party is not run by the corporations anymore. It is a right wing populist party. Some capitalists may donate to Trump in order to stay on his good side in case he gets elected, but Corporate America is now firmly in support of the Democrats.

Perpsctives for RFK campaign
It’s impossible to tell with any confidence where RFK’s campaign will go from here. He is on the ballot in Utah (which Trump won in 2020). His campaign claims it has gotten enough signatures to get him on the ballot in Hawaii, New Hampshire Michigan, South Carolina, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada (athough he will probably have to collect signatures again in Nevada). Note that most of these states are battle ground states. Nobody knows how a RFK candidacy would affect the outcome in any of them, but here’s one possibility:

If RFK is able to win a plurality of votes in one or two states, thereby gaining the electors from those states, then it’s entirely possible that no candidat would win the majority of electoral college votes. If no candidate wins an outright majority, then the House of Representatives chooses the next president. They choose based on one vote for each state and since the majority of states are Republican, this means that the House would pick Trump for the next president, no matter how few votes he gets.

If that happens, then a political crisis would follow. 

Added note: Phillip Ward in the comments below raises the issue of capitalist support for Biden and the Democrats vs. Trump and the QAnon Republicans. Here is an article in which that issue is spelled out in more detail: Donald Trump – an unprecedented crisis.