Most voters are not exactly thrilled by the choice of Biden or Trump.

It is increasingly looking like the next presidential election will be a repeat of the 2020 matchup of Biden vs. Trump. A serious argument can be made that Biden’s support for Israel’s genocidal war means that nobody should vote for him. Another serious argument can be made that Trump poses such a danger that we should vote for Biden despite his criminal policy. A serious argument cannot be made that there are no differences between the two and that it makes no difference who wins.  So, it’s useful to look at the state of affairs of the two likely candidates:

Gaza on fire. Biden staffers who oppose his approval of genocide are committing “career suicide”.

Biden and Israel
As we explained in our previous article on divisions in the Biden administration, Biden is living in the past regarding Israel. That is exacerbated by his having put Brett McGurk, coordinator for “Middle East” and North Africa, in charge of policy in the entire region. McGurk is essentially the 21st century’s Henry Kissinger. He was responsible for Bush’s disastrous policies trying to create a new government in Iraq, for example. He also has enriched himself through his ties with the Saudi government.

According to such reports as this one from al Jazeera, it is considered “career suicide” for anybody in Biden’s administration to question or challenge his position. In this sense, to a limited degree, Biden has put himself in a position similar to that of Putin, who has surrounded himself with pure sycophants. 

Major wings of the US foreign policy establishment strongly disagree with Biden’s position. They understand that Israel’s genocidal war is dragging down US influence in the entire region, and they are trying to pressure both Biden and Israel by publishing news of what Israel is doing. True, it’s only part of the horrors Israel is visiting on the Palestinian people, but it’s far more than what they usually present.

Their previous coverup of Israel and their partial shift is affecting public opinion. For example, Reuters reported that in mid October, 41% of those questioned said that the US should back Israel. A month later, that figure had declined to 32%. And 68% agreed that the US should call a ceasefire.

Overall, though, general support for the racist state of Israel still remains. It is a hangover from the long term coverup of Israel’s historic crimes right from even before its founding.

Biden and the economy
Every U.S. president gets the blame or credit for whatever happens in the U.S. economy, whether what is happening is a result of the president’s actions or not. It’s a symptom of the shallowness of U.S. politics.

However, Biden’s economic policies are not the same as his Democratic predecessors. Obama and Bill Clinton before him followed neoliberal economic policies. These policies amounted to deindustrialization. As we pointed out at the start of Biden’s term, he has moved more in the direction of Keynesianism. It seems this is for two reasons: First is that he recognizes that a large part of the reason for working class support for Trump stems from the devastating job losses for blue collar workers. The second reason is that US imperialism needs to strengthen its industrial base in case of a direct military conflict with Chinese or Russian imperialism. In fact, U.S. military aid to Ukraine has already somewhat depleted US military stocks.

The recovery of demand from the lessening of the pandemic combined with supply bottlenecks due to the pandemic. This was one immediate reason why inflation took off.

In 2023, inflation had a major impact on the great majority of Americans. When Biden came into office, the average price for a gallon of gas was $2.63. By the end of 2023 it was $3.26. Food prices

Rapid inflation of food prices is moderating

increased over that period by roughly 25%. As they say, unemployment directly only affects those who are out of work but inflation affects everybody, so this was a major cause for Biden’s unpopularity.

In the last few months, inflation has been moderating, but it always takes awhile for the average voter (consumer) to recognize the change. That recognition now seems to be starting to happen. The most recent poll was conducted by CNN. It shows that the percent of people who feel that the state of affairs in the U.S. is satisfactory went from 28% Last fall to 35% in January. Seventeen percent last fall felt the economy was improving. Today, that figure is 26%. These are not good figures for Biden, but the direction is pretty clear, and it is affecting Biden’s approval rating: An Emerson College poll showed that among “independents” (voters who haven’t registered for either major party) the approval rating for Biden was 33% in December of 2023 and rose to 37% in January. Support for Biden being the Democratic Party nominee increased 9%, to 72% overall, among Democratic primary voters.

Trump foreign policy

Ever susceptible to flattery and always attracted to dictators, Trump had an affinity for Kim Jong Un.

Trump responded to the populist right wing in the U.S. regarding his foreign policies. However, he was not an isolationist. His main foreign policies were driven by two facts: First was his connection with Putin, which in turn was driven by his having been a money launderer for the Russian oligarchs for many years. The second factor was his stupidity, which meant he was led around by the nose by clever dictators like Kim Jong Un of North Korea.

Some have concluded that Trump’s alleged isolationism would make him less hostile to the Palestinian cause. A recent article in Haaretz reminds us of the reality: It was Trump who moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, thereby approving Israeli control over that city. It was Trump (through his son-in-law) who arranged and then signed the Abraham Accord. The aim of that deal was to secure Saudi Arabia’s approval for Israel to continue to trample on the Palestinians. The author comments, “If Biden, long skeptical of Netanyahu, was nonetheless too quick to embrace the Israeli leader too closely, Bibi led Trump around by the nose, with the U.S. president performing circus tricks for him in public.” Long hostile to immigrants – if they don’t come from Europe – Trump has also opposed allowing any Palestinian refugees into the US. If Trump were president when US soldiers were killed in SouthWest Asia-North Africa (SWANA), and if intense anger were built up over this by the right wing media, Trump would tend to order a lashing out at anybody he held responsible. Nor should we forget that Trump had an extremely aggressive policy towards Venezuela, was considering a U.S. invasion at one point. His policy towards Iran was similarly aggressive,  and shortly after he lost the 2020 election he looked into attacking that country.

His foreign policy is based on right wing nationalist fervor, stupidity, and greed (whoever will give him the best investment deal).

Trump’s economic policies
Trump’s economic policies are all over the place. He pushed for increased payouts to Americans during covid but then opposed his successor’s bailouts when Biden came into office. Today he campaigns against the federal deficit, but his tax giveaway to the rich and the corporations were a major cause of those deficits.

Trump vs. Biden; Biden vs. Trump
Both candidates have major weaknesses. Given the shallowness of US politics, the personal “aura” of the individual always matters more than it should. Biden shows his age more obviously than does Trump, but the latter’s stumbling incoherence has become more noticeable in the last year.

E. Jean Carroll’s successful lawsuit against Trump could partially burst his invincibility aura.

The $83 million loss of Trump in the E. Jean Carrol lawsuit can also put a dent in Trump’s appeal. This has nothing to do with the fact that he’s a convicted rapist; it has everything to do with the fact that his support is based on the image of an indomitable bully. That loss, and a likely future one in the other New York lawsuit, could start to burst that image.

As far as Israel’s war in Gaza, Biden has lost considerable support among young voters as well as Arab Americans. He has taken an utterly cynical approach, figuring that, for one, most voters will have forgotten about the war by next election and, for two, that they will figure that Trump would be worse. He might be right about that. But he might not be.

During his presidency, oaklandsocialist continually warned about Trump’s threat to the democratic form or capitalist rule. In August, 2023, Oaklandsocialist again pointed out the unprecedented nature of Trump’s threats to democratic rights. Biden will base a lot of his campaign on this threat. As the election campaign steps up, this seems likely to get through a little more.

Nevertheless, because of the undemocratic nature of electing a president in the US, even if Biden wins the majority of the popular vote (as did Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Al Gore in 2000), Trump could still win. That’s because, as he said, he could shoot somebody in the middle of Fifth Avenue (or rape a woman) and he wouldn’t lose any votes.

Then there are always the major changes or shocks that could come at any time. For example, if Biden manages to patch up a deal between Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Palestine Authority, he will take the credit as the peacemaker of the decade. On the other hand, the war could explode out of control. Then there is the economy. If it continues to expand as it is (3.3% GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year) and if inflation moderates further, that will be a strong point for Biden. On the other hand, a real economic crisis is possible at any time. For one thing, there may be a crisis developing in the commercial real estate sector as office vacancy rates have hit record highs. This could impact the banking sector as loans come due. That is especially true with interest rates having increased.

So, it’s impossible to have any real sense of who is likely to win the election. But we know who will lose: The U.S. working class.

Most voters are not exactly thrilled by the choice of Biden or Trump.