USS Tripoli, headed for Iran

There seems to be two main organized factions of the MAGA movement and the Trump regime itself as far as his war against Iran. On one side is the populist faction led by the Nazi sympathizers like Tucker Carlson and Nick Fuentes. They blame “Israel”, which for their millions of followers is code word for “the Jews”. They opposed the war from the start, not because they sympathize with the Iranian people and the Women Life Freedom movement, but because they want to further build a pro-Nazi movement of which genuine anti-Semitism is an inherent part. This anti-Semitism has nothing in common with the slur thrown at those of us – this writer included – who oppose Zionism on humanitarian or even socialist grounds.

The other faction is headed by the sole survivor of the neocons who engineered the US invasion of Iraq, John Bolton. He is joined by the editorial board of the Wall St. Journal. Immediately upon Trump’s starting this war, they warned Trump not to stop. “It’s too soon for Iran’s ‘Off Ramp’” they wrote. More recently, on March 6 they carried the same message: “Ending Iran War Quickly Carries Big Risks for the U.S. and its Allies” they warned. They label Trump stopping now as a “nightmare scenario”. This wing has a popular base among MAGAites who are willing to put to the side the rising gas prices in order to celebrate machismo militarism.Trump’s partner in crime, Netanyahu, is lined up with Bolton and the WSJ editorial board. Since he’s Trump’s closest ally – even more so than Putin – he also exerts an influence.

The insane War Secretary Pete Hegseth

This more corporate faction seems to have gained the upper hand and Trump is now likely to send troops into Iran. Four days ago, Axios reported: “Defense Secretary Pete Hegsethis sending an amphibious assault ship, the USS Tripoli, and its Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East... The deployment will add thousands of Marines, several warships, and F-35 fighter jets to support those already in the region…” This is preparation for a ground invasion. A political indication is yesterday’s resignation of Joe Kent, former director of the National Counter Terrorism Center. Kent is associated with “figures on the far right and white nationalists, such as Graham Jorgensen, a member of the far-right military group the Proud Boys, and Joey Gibson, the founder of the Christian nationalist group Patriot Prayer.” In other words, he is deeply entrenched in the Tucker Carlson racist/populist wing of MAGA and doesn’t want to be any further associated with this war.

There are two likely targets for an invasion:

Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island further up in the Persian Gulf

One is Iran’s military installation on Kharg Island. The purpose of targeting that particular point would be to free up the Straits of Hormuz for oil tankers passing from the Persian Gulf. Trump’s hope is to reopen the Straits in order for oil tankers to pass again, thereby lowering the global price of oil.

The other possible target would be to seize a reported 440 kilos of 60% enriched uranium that Iran is said to still have near Isfahan. Uranium enriched to 90% purity is said to be the threshold that must be crossed to build a nuclear bomb. Of course, the dominance of nuclear armed Israel and the US are a driving factor in the Iran dictatorship’s seeking to gain nuclear arms in the first place. But for now, let’s consider what is the likely outcome of such a U.S. invasion.

It seems likely that once having sent troops into one of those targets Trump would be drawn into sending troops to the other.

The main criticism the Bolton/WSJ editorial board (and probably also Netanyahu) have of the invasion of Iraq is that Bush and then Obama never committed enough troops and ended that invasion too soon. If they prevail on Trump to sending troops into any part of Iran, then they will likely prevail on him to going further. Already, Hegseth has openly said that the US is not constrained by the “rules of war”, and he has proven that in action with the double-tap bombing of the girls school. Putting US troops on the ground in Iran will mean even more disastrous attacks on the people of Iran. To whatever extent Trump can “rule” Iran, to that extent it will mean imposing a dictatorship that is even harsher than the present one. Trump and US/Israeli imperialism would rule either through the US military directly – controlled by the psychopath Hegseth – or through remnants of the old regime, or possibly through Pahlevi. US imperialism would plunder Iran to a degree not seen in the current era.

It would also have a disastrous effect here at home. If the invasion succeeds, that will be one more impetus for Trump to invade Cuba. His base will be strengthened and he will use this to further attack democratic rights here at home.

Is Trump heading towards a nuclear attack? It can’t be ruled out.

If the invaders are driven out, the consequences would also be negative, although not as bad as if a ground invasion “succeeds”. First of all, as Oaklandsocialist reported previously, there already is a faction of the US military – the Christian nationalists – who believe in “end times”. The use of a nuclear bomb would fit that scenario perfectly, and if US troops are driven out of Isfahan Trump and his WSJ editorial board faction would be strongly tempted to use those weapons. That plus a generally weakend Trump would drive him to eliminating “democratic” norms even further, possibly including cancelling November’s elections altogether.

From every point of view – from the needs of the masses of people in the entire region in and around Iran, from the needs and interests of the US working class – a disaster looms if Trump and his war machine are not stopped.

“Workers of all lands, unite!”

USS Tripoli, headed for Iran