Reprinted with permission of the author, who also publishes the web site The Fire Next time.net. Here Siyâvash discusses the developing divisions within the regime of the Islamic State of Iran. Such divisions are often the harbinger of a revolution from below. Also note: we have been told by several Iranian friends here in the United States about the division between the Iranian people and Arab peoples in the region. We have also been told by Syrians that many people in that country do not feel a connection with the Iranian people. The only beneficiary of such divisions is the oppressors.
By Siyâvash Shahabi
This fictional photo depicts a hidden reality.
On July 12, 2024, the acting head of Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs publicly confirmed that secret, indirect talks between the Islamic Republic and the United States had been ongoing for years, with Oman acting as the go-between. These negotiations continued quietly under the presidency of Ebrahim Raisi and were not interrupted by his death in a helicopter crash.
This revelation shed a new light on the most recent presidential elections in Iran. Masoud Pezeshkian, now president, campaigned openly for détente with the West. His opponent, with a more hardline posture, acted as if any deal with the West was betrayal. But the deal was already underway. The election served to legitimize what had already been decided at the top: a new round of negotiations, framed as reform, sanctioned by the Supreme Leader himself.
Today, in April 2025, the talks are no longer a secret. Donald Trump wants them to be direct; Tehran insists on indirect negotiations. Behind this disagreement is not just style—it is strategy. Tehran is under pressure to integrate more deeply into the global economic system. For decades, there has been international pressure on Iran to join the Financial Transparency Task Force (FTIF), and this will not be possible unless the regime retreats from its support for armed groups classified as “terrorist organizations” by the West.
The assassinations of key figures in Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas (some even inside Iran) cannot be separated from this context. These killings, and their timing after the elections, point to a broader shift. Meanwhile, Russia and China, once the loudest defenders of the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” are much quieter today. Israeli jets bomb Lebanon with fuel possibly supplied by Russia or Nigeria. The situation exposes the limits of Tehran’s alliances.
Israel and the “Axis of Resistance”
There is now a global logic silent, but shared even by Tehran’s so-called allies that the Axis of Resistance no longer poses a serious threat. It has been contained.
But we must not forget: the current escalation of violence in the region has been provoked by Israel. The Likud Party and Netanyahu himself do not seek coexistence. They don’t want the erasure of the Islamic Republic from political landscape. Not a change in regime, but a total elimination of Iran. The United States, on the other hand, is not interested in regime change. It wants a regime that complies. Islamic regime is.
Masoud Pezeshkian, Iranian president
Inside the Islamic Republic, different factions fight for influence. Each has its rhetoric, but none operate outside the red lines drawn by the Supreme Leader. Pezeshkian won not because he represented true change, but because he was acceptable to the regime’s highest authorities. The logic is clear: if Iran is to cut a deal with the West, it cannot do so through someone like Saeed Jalili, who speaks the language of Ahmadinejad-era confrontation. Pezeshkian, from the very beginning, spoke the language of compromise. He promised to join the FTIF, to normalize relations, to clean up the economy. He was rewarded with the presidency.
As I told Jacobin Italia, elections in Iran are not democratic processes. They are carefully managed ceremonies. There is competition, but always within the boundaries set by Khamenei. After the uprising of Women, Life, Freedom, and amid ongoing unrest in Iran’s industrial sectors, the regime needed a new face. Someone who could sell military operations against Israel as lawful defense under international law, while preserving the Islamic Republic’s basic structure.
If Netanyahu launches a full-scale war, internal tensions in the Iranian elite could erupt into open conflict. A form of civil war among the ruling class is not impossible. But for now, there is relative unity. Expectations for U.S. elections were low; the normalization process seemed to continue regardless of who could be in the White House.
What’s unfolding is no longer hidden: it’s a calculated alignment, driven by imperialist necessity, disguised as diplomacy, and marketed as “resistance” in a so-called multipolar world. In truth, it’s surrender dressed up as strategy.
Oaklandsocialist comments: This article is extremely important for several reasons, one of which is the critical importance of Iran in regional and global politics. For one thing, I think that nobody knows better than the Iranian people what it really means to live under religious fundamentalist (in this case Islamic fundamentalist) rule. They and their revolution have much to teach us all. Also see Oaklandsocialist’s video/slideshow (also transcribed) Palestine, the Arab Spring and the Iranian Revolution.
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Categories: Middle East, Uncategorized