A signal on how far Trump will be willing to go as far as unleashing actual fascists on US society will be whether he pardons Stewart Rhodes, the leader of the Oath Keepers. Rhodes is one of the most violent and dangerous of those who were imprisoned following the January 6 insurrection. And I do not use the term “fascist“ lightly. Along with the threat of the Oath Keepers goes the threat of a movement known as the Dominionists or as a recent article in the Atlantic referred to them the New Apostolic Reformation. These are the American equivalent of a group like ISIS. They don’t go as far as ISIS at this point because society is different in the industrialized capitalist world from society in the former colonial world, but what they have in common is the belief that their religion must dominate society. In the case of the New Apostolic Reformation, or NAR, they believe that it is God‘s word, and God‘s word alone, that must rule over society, or to be more exact, their interpretation of what they believe is God‘s word. In other words, they openly oppose the seperation between the state and religion. They believe homosexuality is a sin, abortion is murder, and underneath it all that anything that sees society is being divided along class lines is driven by Satan. This means that all of this is punishable by death, although they cannot openly advocate this at this point. This is not just some tiny fringe movement. According to the Atlantic, 40% of Christians consider themselves to be dominionists, or supporters of the New Apostolic Reformation. Since about 66% of people in the United States call themselves Christians, that means that about 25% of people in the country overall are supporters of Dominionism or the NAR. When you link this up with violent fascist organizers, like the Oath Keepers and the Proud Boys this is where you could get a real base for a mass fascist movement in the United States.

There are at least 20 million of these guns in circulation.

Now consider a few other statistics: it is estimated that there are about 20 million assault rifles in circulation in the United States. This is probably an under estimate since there are probably thousands of ghost guns also in circulation, but in any case it is also estimated that about 16 million people in the country own an assault Rifle, so that means that millions own more than one. Why would anybody in the United States own more than one assault rifle other than to carry out armed attacks against others in the country? The main thing holding them back is the fact that they are not really organized. Groups like the Oath Keepers can provide that organizing on a mass scale, and capitalists like Elon Musk could provide the finances. And dominionism can provide the ideology for such organizing. These religious fanatics played an essential role and getting Trump elected. It’s not just that we know it, it’s that Trump knows it too, and he always plays to his base.

It is hard to imagine actual fascism gaining power in the United States, because US capitalism does not need fascism. Hitler and Mussolini came to power when capitalism was in an absolute crisis in those countries, and the capitalist class could no longer rule through the normal “democratic“ means. That is nowhere near true here in the United States at this time. Whereas in Germany and Italy, the working class was contending for power, here in the United States the working class is fragmented, almost completely disorganized, and in its greatest political crisis of my lifetime. So what has happened is as Oaklandsocialist has said before a huge vacuum has opened up.

The next question is: what forces if any could develop to counter the tendency towards fascism?

In answering that we have to look at Trump‘s most recent foreign policy pronouncements. He seems to have aspirations for a United States which dominates the entire North Atlantic, from Greenland through to Canada and down to the Panama Canal. It also includes controlling the Gulf of Mexico, which he wants to rename the Gulf of America. From where did Trump develop this vision? One might possibly thnk that it comes from a plan to control a northwest sea passage through the Arctic, as the Arctic ice melts due to global warming. However, I think that is giving Trump too much credit as far as his ability to strategize. What I suspect is that he simply wants to emulate his mentor, Putin, whom he considers to be a genius and who is attempting to control all of northern Europe. Trump wants to emulate him on an even grander scale. Alongside of this goes Trump‘s policy of abandoning the US’s most important allies, which are the western European capitalists, as expressed through NATO.

It is impossible to really predict how all of this will play out in Europe, Africa, Asia, and Latin America, except to say that it is difficult to see how this will not severely destabilize world relations, which means jeopardizing US “interests“ meaning US investments in those other continents. And this is where the role of the US military

Mark Esper. He was one of the “adults in the room” under the first Trump administration. There won’t be any of these “adults” this time.

comes in. I’m right now reading the memoirs of Mark Esper, who was Trump‘s last secretary of defense in his first administration. Esper was one of the “adults in the room“, meaning the more sane ones who were looking out for the strategic strategic interest of the US capitalist class when Trump was in office the first time. His memoir makes clear the intimate connections between the US military establishment, the tops of academia, and the tops of the US capitalist class. Esper himself, for example, moved from a military career to working for private, defense related companies and back from there to the military, and to becoming the secretary of defense. Others who worked under Esper travel that same route, and also including cycling through academia. Esper also makes clear how absolutely central the US military is in US foreign policy, or in other words in advancing and defending US corporate interest around the globe.

In his memoir, Esper emphasizes the importance of the military command adhering to civilian control, respect for the “rule of law“, and the US Constitution. An important reason for that appears to be that he sees each military commander as mainly looking out for their own turf. That interferes with developing and coordinating an overall military strategy, which means a foreign policy. It is the civilian command, which is capable of developing that overall strategy. Or to be more exact, it is a civilian command under the rule of capitalist democracy, which is capable of doing that.

I believe that his views represent the views of the overwhelming majority of the command structure in the United States military. However, there has always been another wing, a minority wing, of the US military that in the past was best represented by people like Michael Flynn, and today is best represented by Pete Hegseth, who now appears almost certain to win confirmation for secretary of defense. Hegseth is an actual Nazi and also an absolute Trump sycophant. He will most certainly go along with or encourage all the fascist tendencies of Trump‘s MAGA horde. But how about the majority of the command structure below him? Of course, Hegseth can, and probably will get rid of any prominent generals who oppose him, but it is hard to see how he can purge the entire military command structure. It’s true that this entire command structure has had drilled into it, the absolute necessity of obeying orders. But that refers to orders which originated at the top through civilian control when that civilian control represents the interest of the US capitalist class or at least major wings of the capitalist class as they understand their interest.

In his memoir Esper talks about the importance of a military policy, which means a foreign policy, which “coordinates a plan to strengthen allies and build partners“. Just as Trump‘s domestic policies will sow chaos, so will his foreign policies. That includes all these strategic alliances which the United States government has built and relied upon ever since World War II. What will happen if Trump really carries out a military attack against Panama‘s control over the Panama Canal? Won’t Panama and possibly other Latin American countries turn even more towards Chinese capitalism? Then think about NATO: The entire US military command structure in northern Europe must be linked by 1000 different threads towards their European counterparts. What will happen if Trump seriously weekends or even pulls out of NATO altogether and actually encourages Putin to take an even more aggressive attack on northern Europe? these are just a couple of examples of how a Trump foreign policy could severely damage the interest of US capitalism around the globe.

So how will the majority of the US military command structure, which is intimately connected with the tops of the US capitalist class, respond to this Trump-created chaos at home and abroad? This command structure has been raised on the absolute adherence to civilian control, which would be control by Trump in this case. They are also committed to carrying out the orders of those above them. That is nearly 100% what they adhere to. But this would be an entirely new and different situation, one which is totally unprecedented in all of US history. What was true in the past might not be true in the future.

It is difficult to see how an actual military coup, with tanks, rolling down Constitution Avenue and soldiers ousting the president from office, could happen. But somehow, and it is impossible to predict exactly how, the beginnings of that command structure starting to take on a role independent of the executive branch of the government could start to develop it seems to me.

Then there is another question: Trump is already showing signs of serious mental decline. What would happen if he had a stroke or even just if that mental decline became so great that he could not carry out any of the duties of a president, including simply making decisions? Who knows? All of this and more constitutes a leap into the great unknown.