Introduction
This is the second part of a two part series on the perspectives for the coming Trump regime. In Part One we discussed

1. Some of Trump’s major appointments and their significance.
2. What sections of the U.S. capitalist class support Trump and why.
3. What sections of the U.S. capitalist class oppose Trump and why.

In this part we will discuss

4. Trump’s opposition within and rule over the capitalist class and their parties.
5. Possible stresses and divisions within the Trump administration and within the Republican Party.
6. Possibilities of a movement from below against Trump.
7. Some general conclusions.

Trump’s opposition within the US capitalist class
(In Part One, we discussed why the Silicon Valley venture capitalists were the main wing of the capitalist class that supports Trump.) The other main wings of the US capitalist class oppose Trump and what he represents. For one thing, many of Trump’s nominees, such as Peter Hegseth and Matt Gaetz, simply have no experience administering such large organizations. Completely aside from the policies involved, the leadership of Hegseth and Gaetz will result in chaos all through the ranks. Fascism thrives on chaos, but the major wings of the US capitalist class see no need for anything approaching that at this time or in the near future.

On the contrary, Trump’s policies directly violate their interests. 

First and foremost is Trump’s anti-NATO stance and his plans to abandon Ukraine. That country and Eastern Europe as a whole are potentially important targets for investment, new markets, and sources of raw material. The extractive industry (mining, oil and agriculture) are in sharp competition with Russian imperialism for access to that area. Finance capital would also be involved in that competition. Today more than ever, military power is central to economic access and NATO is the most important military alliance for US capitalism. Access to those markets would be severely jeopardized by any weakening of NATO. (None of this means that the left should not support defeating Russia’s invasion, which is only possible with the help of US arms.)

Trump’s means of rule will disrupt the entire method of capitalist rule – “bourgeois democracy” as it is called – that it has used ever since the Civil War. Since there is no real threat from below to that method of rule, the great majority of the capitalist class opposes that massive change. In any authoritarian dictatorship, the authoritarians use their power to loot the capitalist class itself. Trump’s presidency will be the most corrupt in U.S. history and that is exactly what he will do. He will also impose rules and laws arbitrarily, making it difficult for the capitalists to operate.

The capitalists’ normal means of opposing a president
Normally in the U.S. if the capitalists are unhappy with some decisions of the president and congress, they conduct a propaganda campaign against those politicians and/or their party. That’s what the majority did during the election campaign, and it was ineffective. The capitalists also have their views expressed in congress through different factions of the two major parties. The Democrats are now completely shut out of power. As for the Republicans, there are wings that will be very unhappy with some of Trump’s policies, such as his imposing tariffs and his coming abandonment of both Ukraine and NATO. These Republicans have all more or less towed the line; they are just sycophants for Trump.

There is some speculation that Trump will be unable to get the nomination of Gaetz through the Senate. Trump’s plan is to have the senate majority leader declare the senate in recess. If he does that, according to the Constitution, the president can appoint people without Senate confirmation. The new Senate majority leader, John Thune, has indicated that he will be willing to declare recess, despite the fact that it would be an extreme stretch of the Constitution. And the MAGA Supreme Court would probably go along with it. Even some Republican senators will be extremely unhappy about that, but it seems unlikely they will do anything effective.

Trump with Elon Musk and others. It might not be such smooth sailing forever.

Other stresses within the Trump administration
There may also be stresses within the Trump administration. For example, Elon Musk has major investments in China, and Susie Wiles has long standing connections to the Chinese capitalists. Trump’s tariffs will be a real problem for them. It is hard to see, however, how Trump will not be able to run over any opposition from within his own administration. At the very least, he would be liable to take bribes in order to grant exclusions to particular companies. These bribes would be in the form of juicy investment opportunities, for example.

Chair of Joint Chiefs of Staff under Trump, making clear that he would disobey a Trump order to carry out a military coup. Trump won’t appoint this type again.

Will the military revolt?
Trump’s policies will be extremely disruptive to the US economy also. That is especially true as far as imposition of tariffs, mass deportation, and prosecuting his “enemies” in the Democratic Party. It seems nearly certain that Trump will call out the troops, at least the National Guard if not the army itself. During his first administration, the military tops like the Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley made it clear to Trump that they would disobey any order to use the troops to establish martial law, on the basis that such an order would be illegal. Trump will appoint a new Joint Chiefs of Staff that will be wholly subservient to him rather than to the “rule of law” (and the Constitution). These will be officers like Mike Flynn.

Officers further down the chain of command have been trained to carry out the orders of superior officers. So they are extremely unlikely to disobey any order to put the troops onto the streets. The only circumstance in which there would likely be a move to disobey is if the officers start to lose control over the rank and file soldiers. In other words, if the rank and file soldiers start to disobey. In Syria, for example, large numbers of rank and file soldiers started coming over to the revolution. As a result, a layer of officers came over with them. The key word here is “revolution”; the soldiers came over in the face of a mass popular movement.

Popular opposition to Trump?
How likely is it that such a movement develops?

Recently a white worker – a Berniecrat – was talking with a group of other workers, both black and white. Almost all the whites were Trump supporters. This worker in question posed the question: “Now that you’ve won, what are you going to get out of it other than being able to use the ‘n’ word? How will Trump improve your life?” The black workers were amused by this, especially because the whites were stumped. “Things are going to get better” was all they could resort to. The next day, one of the white workers tried to answer the question by telling the worker in question that prices are going to come down. The exact opposite will happen.

There have already been some protests by the left against some of Trump’s policies. They were small and ineffective and probably will remain so. This is the same left that did nothing to oppose or organize against Trump during the election. Even to this day, some of them are still picturing the Democrats as the greater evil. They are cut off from reality and cut off from the working class.

As inflation takes off again, something like the French Yellow Vest movement is possible. This entirely spontaneous and chaotic movement

The French “Yellow Vest” movement of 2018. Is a similar movement possible in the U.S.?.

in 2018 was sparked off by the government’s increasing the gas tax. (It was called the Yellow Vest movement because car owners in France have to carry high visibility yellow vests in their cars in case of a breakdown, and the protesters wore those vests.) Millions of French people swarmed the streets and highways, especially the traffic circles, and French transport was basically shut down for weeks. See this article  for more.

A few protests have been organized already, but so far these are organized by the same lefts that spent the last few months denouncing the Democrats and saying nothing about the dangers of Trump and MAGA. Their politics are entirely performative; they are meant to prove their mettle to other left sectarians. A perfect example of their real approach lies in an article published in the influential (within the left) journal CounterPunch. It is by the “socialist” former Seattle city council member Kshama Sawant. In it, Sawant actually celebrates the victory of Trump, which it pictures as a step towards the building of a working class party. As Oaklandsocialist discussed here,  this is a repeat of the disaster of the Stalinists’ “third period Communism” in which the German Communist Party of the 1930s took the position “after Hitler, then us.” We know how well that worked out.  The article’s significance lies not so much in the fact that Sawant, who is bound for oblivion, attacks the Democrats as in the fact that CounterPunch would publish such trash. The left also encouraged Arab Americans to help Trump get elected. That community is now expressing buyers’ remorse, but it’s too late.

Even many of those socialists who called for a vote for Harris more or less dodged the question. The Ukraine Socialist Solidarity Campaign stood out as one of the very few who openly called for a defeat of Trump, meaning a vote for Harris.

Could a mass movement against Trump arise?

Trump will find some scapegoat for increased prices, possibly “illegal immigrants”. The fact that that would be an outright lie is completely irrelevant. The MAGAites have proven themselves willing to believe anything Trump says. Trump could even start a “little” war as a distraction, possibly in Mexico. During his first term in office, he raised the idea  of missile strikes against the Mexican drug cartels. Now, he is talking about sending “kill teams” into Mexico to assassinate leaders of drug cartels. That could lead to real battles and use of actual U.S. troops there.

Proud Boys.These and other violent fascists feel empowered by Trump’s election.

There is also the role of the MAGA fascists like the Proud Boys, the Oath Keepers and the Constitutional Sheriffs. These all have either direct or indirect connections with official law enforcement. They have already had a boost from Trump’s election and will be further energized when Trump pardons the January 6 fascist organizers.

The Democrats’ strategy is to file lawsuits against the more blatant actions of Trump. He will roll over the lawsuits like a steam roller, and if worst comes to worst he will have the Supreme Court to back him up. The Democrats also figure that they will make a comeback in 2026. Future elections will be manipulated like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán does. President Biden is living in the past as always. He welcomed Trump into the White House, pretending that the Trump regime will be the same as what came before it. He is helping lull Americans to sleep.

Excerpts from UAW president Sean Fain’s absolutely pathetic statement on the election of Trump. “The People Have Spoken…. we stand today where we stood last week…. The UAW will stand with any politician, regardless of party…” What he is really saying is that, given a chance, under his leadership the UAW will capitulate to the fascistic Trump.

The union leadership is typically following the Democrats’ lead. Before the election, the reform leader Sean Fain, president of the United Auto Workers Union, had had his union issue a “call to action”, which was nothing more than a get-out-the-vote attempt. A week and a day after Trump’s victory, he said “no matter who is in the White House, our fight remains the same.” In other words, nothing significant has changed. He went further in a letter on social media: “The People Have Spoken… our mission remains the same,” he wrote. In other words, he is working hand in glove with Biden to lull workers to sleep.

General perspectives
Ten years ago, billionaire investor Nick Hanauer gave a TED Talk entitled “The pitchforks are coming… for us Plutocrats”.  His talk, which is well worth reading, emphasized the sharp division of wealth. He said that his fellow “plutocrats” had better do something to allow the spread of a little bit of that wealth or else there would be a mass rebellion against them. The union leadership, together with the  nonprofiteers, successfully diverted such a rebellion. The pressure and the anger continued to mount, however, and a far right demagogue – Trump – managed to capture it. He transformed the Republican Party into a cult around himself. Once caught in that cult, it’s very difficult to escape.

This new Trump administration will be very different from the last one. He won’t have the “adults in the room” like he did the last time. All the old guard rails will be gone. There will be all sorts of stresses and strains, as we have shown. Normally, in any administration in any country, such stresses would mean an extremely weak government, subject to being toppled at any time. That’s possible now, but it seems unlikely.

 The ascension of Trump to power  opens up an entirely new – and dangerous – era in US and therefore also world history. The greatest danger will lie in the fact that his policies will accelerate global climate disruption and capitalism’s assault on the environment in general. Other than that, it would be foolhardy to make any definitive predictions as to what will come of it, other than to say mass suffering of human beings and, in fact, of all species on the planet.

Conclusion
Socialists and the US working class have been dealt their greatest defeat since WW II, and probably before then. The nature of this defeat lies in the fact that tens of millions of U.S. workers (and others) voted for a semi-fascist who appealed to racism, ethno-nationalism, male supremacy, homophobia, ableism, and science denialism.

Such defeats have historically been met with retreats into fantastical thinking, mysticism, adventurism, search for a new “genius” who will save us, and/or passivity. The socialist forces which actually opposed Trump are tiny. The only path forward is to stare the facts in the face and do the best we can to clarify what is coming. First and foremost that means assessing why Trump won and where he is likely to head. It also means a serious study of how the working class, and socialists within the working class, have arrived at this pass. 

Coming soon:Did Trump/Putin steal the election? An analysis of the claims that  the elections were stolen by Trump and the Republicans.