Two key political events will happen today. First will be a meeting with Democratic senators and Biden staffers. Second will be Biden’s press conference. Let’s consider where things seem to stand as of now, though:

One poll seemed to show that Biden’s disastrous debate performance had barely shifted the needle. According to this poll, 94% of people who had said they’d support Biden before the debate said they’d still support him after it. For Trump, that figure was 86%. So, on the surface things were worse for Trump than for Biden. However, that is deceptive, in part because of how the electoral college system skews everything. Because of this system, since 2000, the last Republican president to get elected with a plurality of the popular vote was George Bush in 2000. The entire question hinges on getting a majority of electoral votes, and with one exception (Maine) it’s an all or nothing event. So, if a candidate gets 65% of the popular vote, they get 100% of the electoral college votes. If a candidate gets 50.01% of the popular vote, they still get 100% of the electoral college votes. And since Trump’s margin in many states is very slim, this give him a huge advantage.

Shift of states before and after the Trump-Biden debate

Cook Political Report
A better analysis comes from Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report. She was interviewed by Jake Tapper of CNN just this morning. She has shifted Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nebraska from “likely Democrat” to “leaning Democrat”. She shifted Arizona, Georgia and Nevada from “tossup” to “leaning Republican”. A key question she explained is the time factor. Trump bases a lot of his campaign on Biden showing his age. Walter explained that it’s possible between now and November that Biden could possibly show that he’s not “too old” to be president for another four years. As of now, he seems set to prove Trump right. Walter also explained, “one of the things that people at home should understand about polling is that it matters less necessarily where the polls are right now as the trend line, where are they headed.” At present, it’s all headed in the wrong direction for Biden and that’s especially harmful for his chances since he started out already behind in the all important electoral vote count.

Biden defenders have pointed out that Obama’s first debate performance was a failure but he overcame that. Walter countered that Obama had appeared aloof, and that was a political problem which could be (and was) resolved. This is different. “Every single [Trump campaign] ad now through November is going to be… ‘saying even members of his own party think he shouldn’t do the job’.”

Even Biden’s ABC interview with George Stephanopoulos did not disprove that claim.

Washington Post poll
The most recent poll is a Washington Post/ABC news poll which just came out today. It shows Trump and Biden in a dead heat at 46% support each. Other polls show Trump doing even better, with a 3.5% margin over Biden. They note: “Biden led Trump by between nine and 11 points in averages of public polls at this point in the campaign four years ago. He ended up winning by 4.5 points.” In other words, if the polls are as off in the same direction as they were 4 years ago, Trump will not only win the electoral college, he’ll win the popular vote. 

A couple of other findings: “The share of Americans saying Biden is more mentally sharp than Trump dropped from 23 percent in April to 14 percent this month. The share saying Biden is in better physical health than Trump dropped from 20 percent to 13 percent…. The share saying only Biden is too old is unchanged at 28 percent, along with the 2 percent who say only Trump is too old.” 

On alternative candidates, the poll seems to show some contradictions. On the one hand, it found that “In a separate question, 70 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they would be “satisfied” if Harris replaced Biden as the party’s presidential nominee. That rises to 85 percent among Black Democrats, but large majorities of Democrats across demographic groups also say they’d be satisfied with Harris.” On the other hand, it found that 63% of black Democrats and 59% of Latino Democrats said they think Biden should continue while 64% of white Democrats think Biden should withdraw.  A possible explanation is that those who are most vulnerable to Trump’s attacks are the ones who cling the hardest to what they consider to be safety. All the findings, though, indicate that this is a mistake.

The key finding is this: “The big difference between Biden and Trump is that almost 9 in 10 Republicans continue to favor Trump continuing to run and a much larger majority of independents say Biden should get out than say the same about the former president.”

This is why the Wall St. Journal reported, that Democratic lawmakers are in a “panic over President Biden’s prospects at the top of the ticket and what his sinking fortunes could do for House and Senate races hit a crescendo Tuesday.” They met together and, according to the WSJ, “Inside the room, the mood was somber.” The majority of them, though, know that speaking up will jeopardize their careers so they may be “somber” but they are silent. This is especially so for the “progressives” and those in the black and hispanic caucuses. It’s those in the swing districts whose careers are most in danger so they’re the ones speaking up. Now, the grande dame of the Democratic Party, Nancy Pelosi, is also hinting at saying Biden should withdraw. She can do so because she’s on her way out and there is nothing the Biden machine can do to her, but even with her it’s only a hint. Meanwhile, the Atlantic magazine is reporting that the Trump team is extremely confident on a Republican landslide should Biden stay in the race, but they appear confused and uncertain of what to do if another candidate replaces him.

Unless Pelosi and the other tops of the Party decide that the longer term prospects for their party outweigh their immediate career goals, it seems the Democrats will be stuck with Biden. As things stand, that means that Americans, and the world, will most likely be stuck with Trump and everything that comes with him.