Trump’s victory in the Iowa caucus was a lot stronger than many people realize. To his 51% must be added the 7.7% of Ramaswamy votes. In fact, once DeSantis falls by the wayside, most of his voters (21.2% in the Iowa results) will go to Trump since DeSantis’s appeal was that he would be even more successful in carrying out the Trump agenda.
Nor should those who oppose Trump be comforted by the fact that only 15% of registered Republicans showed up to caucus. As one (Republican) construction worker told a friend of mine, “no I didn’t go. It’s damn cold and everybody knew Trump was going to win anyway.” In fact, by polling time it was -30 degrees with the wind chill factor, the coldest ever for that event.
The talking heads
Nevertheless, the Democrats continue to bury their heads in the sand. Former U.S. senator-turned-political-pundit Clair McCaskill (from Missouri) “explained” why Biden was going to win. Talking on MSNBC’s Alex Wagner show last night, McCaskill said that Biden “is really good at relating to normal people.” He represents “integrity, normality, stability, getting results for you,” vs. the “chaos” that Trump represents. McCaskill’s fellow ostrich, Stuart Stevens of the Lincoln Project (never Trump Republicans) confidently predicted that Biden will win by an even bigger margin than he did in 2020.
These pundits totally miss the mark. In fact, from war to inflation, it’s Biden who represents chaos to millions of American voters. The fact that the current president cannot affect the global price of oil (the main driver of inflation) is irrelevant to most voters. And as for global chaos, that too is inherent in the capitalist system today.
One Trump supporter in Iowa explained her thinking, and that of millions of others: “You want someone strong, globally, so that it creates mutual respect with other countries, and maybe a little bit of fear. Yes, it’s true, not everyone likes him. It’s good not to be liked. Being strong is better. You gotta be a little crazy, maybe, to make sure other countries respect and fear us. And he can run the country like a business, and they will leave him alone.”
The question of image also plays into this. Biden simply looks old. His every movement projects age as does his speech itself. And U.S. voters are tremendously swayed by image.
The most recent poll (taken mid-January) shows Trump leading Biden 50% to 48%. (Haley leads by even more.)
Polls pretty accurately predicted the result of the Iowa caucuses.
Some on the left dismiss these polls. “The polls are always wrong,” they say (except when the polls show something they like). But the Iowa polls pretty accurately predicted the outcome there. Nor does Trump even have to win more popular votes than Biden. In 2016, Trump was elected with 46% of the popular vote vs. 48% for Hillary Clinton.
Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza is also harming Biden in a way that it does not for whichever Republican candidate emerges. That’s because the Republican leaning voters are more or less united in supporting Israel but the Democratic leaning voters are divided. As the NY Times poll shows, even among young voters there is a significant minority who support Israel. So, whichever way Biden leans, he’s going to lose voters.
Whichever way Biden leans, he will lose support.
A huge question mark is the economy, for which any sitting president gets the blame or credit. Right now, inflation is moderating while unemployment remains low. The war in SouthWest Asia North Africa (SWANA) adds an additional element of instability. Already the Houthis have come close to stopping shipping through the Red Sea. Currently, about 12% of global seaborne oil trade passes through that route. Rerouting it around the tip of southern Africa adds time and money. The real danger to the world economy is the Strait of Hormuz (controlled by Iran). Up to about 30% of global consumption of oil passes by the Strait. If Israel provokes a wider war with Iran, it seems likely that Iran would close the Strait. In that case, oil prices – meaning inflation – would skyrocket. That would probably guarantee a Trump victory in November.
In general, Biden is a creature of the past. He thinks that the Israel of today can return to the days of the Israel of Golda Meir. He thinks that the Republican Party of today can be returned to the days of the Republican Party of 20 or 30 years ago. In fact, his very appeal when he ran in 2020 was based on exactly that – restore the days of old.
It would be just as foolish to confidently predict a Trump victory as to predict the opposite. However, the continued support for Trump and his complete domination of the Republican Party is part of a global phenomenon. We see something similar in Hungary (Orban), Turkey (Erdogan), India (Modi), Italy (Meloni), and more. In fact, Putin is the world leader in this trend. In a future article, we will discuss the causes for this rise in nationalist reaction and bigotry. Suffice it to say here that it involves the crises of both global capitalism and the world working class.
