The latest poll results, collected from realclearpolitics.com
It’s impossible to have any certainty about what will happen in these elections, but if I had to make a bet, I’d bet that the Republicans will have a massive wipeout and that Trump will holler and shout but in the end he’ll have to accept it. Here’s why:
The more recent polls show that the leads of Democratic candidates are increasing. Troy Jackson, for example, has gone from one or two percentage point leads to six percent. El Sayed and Talarico have also increased their leads in the opinion polls. And the last time she ran for reelection, Maine Republian senator Susan Collins started out well behind in the polls. This time the reverse is happening. She started out tied or one or two points behind Democrat Troy Jackson. The latest poll shows Jackson six points ahead. Also, voter turnout is strongly for the Democrats — while Democratic and Republican early voter numbers are about equal, independent voter numbers have been very high, and the polls show strong disapproval of Trump among those voters.
Here’s a conversation report: I have a neighbor, a 50-something year old black guy. Totally working class. From time to time we’ve crossed paths when I’m out walking our dogs. We’ve known each other to say “hi” for at least ten years now. After Trump was reelected in 2024 I ran into him and asked him what he thought. He said, “he might be the worst president we’ve ever had. He might be the best president we’ve ever had.” That’s where his head was at as I think a lot of my neighbors were. The other day I saw him standing at the bus stop as he was on his way to deposit his ballot and we got to talking. He first said he preferred it when we voted in person and there were all his neighbors around. I asked him about the elections. He immediately started criticizing Trump for his attacks on immigrants. He agreed it was divide and conquer. An elderly Chinese lady was standing there. She hardly spoke any English, but she chimed in too. I asked the guy I know what he thought of local elections. He didn’t even know who was running. All he cared about was Trump. I have no reason to think this guy is exceptional. (I would add that I care about these election results more than I ever have about any previous election.)
Will Trump try to overturn the results?
He already has tried through a series of challenges, and he’s lost in court in every case. I think his support among Republicans in congress is weakening as shown by the fact that many of them didn’t want him campaigning in their districts. Those two facts will make it difficult for him to take some more blatant action like seize voting machines. Trump himself seems resigned to losing control over congress. In a recent interview, he said that if the Democrats take control over congress he’ll be “Mr. veto”.
All of this could be completely wrong.On the one hand, Republicans could outperform the polls as they have in the past. Even if they don’t:
Trump could drop a nuke on Iran (as Tucker Carlson is predicting) and could declare a state of emergency in the U.S. But that’s not what seems the most likely right at this moment. I just returned from being a poll watcher at an early vote center in Oakland. All is completely quiet. I’m wondering what it is like in Georgia or Michigan.
The latest poll results, collected from realclearpolitics.com