Robert Rubin – “Mr. Finance Capital”
Robert Rubin
Let’s start with Robert Rubin: He served as Treasury Secretary under President Bill Clinton and is a retired banking executive. The fact that he’s retired provides him with the freedom to speak out without fear that the Trump administration will “investigate” any bank with which he is associated. So, on Oct. 21 the NY Times published a column by him entitled In Six Decades of Public Life, I Never Thought I Would Write This Piece. In it, Rubin denounces Trump’s plans to try to steal the upcoming midterm elections. Why? Because it would be bad for the markets! Rubin writes: “Nov. 3 could be a defining test for the rule of law in this country, and both our democracy and our prosperity are on the line.” Right from the opening bell, he ties capitalist democratic rule to economic stability. He raises all the points Oaklandsocialist has warned about for over a month now including sending “armed federal agents” to polling places and seizing ballot boxes. Rubin writes: “the economic impact could be felt immediately, and it could last long after Mr. Trump’s presidency ends. With the exception of the booming A.I. sector, corporate investment is already weak. The National Federation of Independent Business’s measurement of small-business uncertainty is 32 percent above its historical average. This seems like a bad time to inject substantially more instability into the mix.”
Rubin warns about Trump’s possible use of the Insurrection Act to take any election disputes outside of court challenges.
Then Rubin explains the heart of the matter: “The economic impact [of Trump trying to overturn an election] will outlast any immediate political crisis. The rule of law, undergirded by a tradition of free elections and the peaceful transfer of power, supports business decisions and attracts foreign companies to invest. It underlies the position of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. It bolsters investors’ confidence in the full faith and credit of the United States and lowers interest rates on our debt. The integrity of our elections, in other words, has been one of the keys to American prosperity.
“The United States has not yet seen its economy suffer from a lack of confidence in its legal system. Other countries have. ‘We can live with high inflation,’ one Turkish executive told The Financial Times last year, ‘but our biggest disincentive to invest is the lack of the rule of law.’ A 2024 State Department report similarly identified rule-of-law issues — including lack of respect for property rights, repression of criticism and arbitrary investigations and arrests — as major impediments to the business climate in China.
“The United States does not have to become Turkey or China to feel the economic impacts of a diminished rule of law,” Rubin warns.
That is really the heat of the matter – the capitalists need a reliable legal system – one which is not based on the arbitrary decisions of a dictator – in order to invest with confidence. There are both economic and political/legal conditions that will ensure that confidence. What the rules are matters less than their being enforced in a clear and consistent manner. That is what “the rule of law” means. For example, if a large corporation wants to swallow up a smaller one, the executives have to know that the anti-monopoly laws will be applied evenly. Under Trump, however, the executives must please Trump personally in order to get a favorable ruling. That is not good for business as a whole.
To an extent, Putin and Xi can play Trump because they are a lot smarter than he is, but in the end the plan is to divide up the world between the three of them.
U.S. capitalism’s international role
The other issue that is equally important to the U.S. capitalist class is their role internationally. U.S. capitalism is a world power. It cannot survive confined within its own walls. That is doubly so given the international role of the dollar, as Rubin pointed out. The dollar and U.S. capitalists’ global investment and trade have to be backed up militarily. This is where the Wall St. Journal’s (WSJ) editorial board comes in. On the same day that Rubin published his column in the NY Times, the WSJ published a lead editorial entitled “Trump’s new global triumvirate?”
The focus was the plan for Trump to meet privately with Putin and Xi in order to work out a “peace plan” for Ukraine. The history of this is as follows:
Last August, Trump had a private meeting with Putin in Anchorage, Alaska. According to Reuters (as well as other sources), Putin presented a peace plan in which all of Donbas would be ceded to Russia.
This would give Russia control over territory that its military has been unable to capture. In fact, according to the reliable Combat Vet News Russian forces are on the retreat and have lost 110 sq. kilometers of territory to Ukraine in the last month. Not only that, but the Putin-Trump “peace deal” would cede a region where Ukraine has built its main defense line. That would open up Ukraine to a further invasion.
Then the Wall St. Journal reported that on Oct. 9 Putin and Trump held a phone call in which Putin proposed that he, Xi and Trump hold a private side meeting at the Nov. 18-19 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference to be held in China. The immediate purpose of this three-way meeting would be to further refine the agreement to end the war in Ukraine and bring Xi into the plan. Zelensky or any Ukraine representative would be excluded from this discussion. The WSJ reported, “The plan represents an effort by Putin to capitalize on warming ties between Trump and the Russian leader that have alarmed Ukraine and its allies in Washington and Europe. Such a summit—one without the involvement of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky—would be unprecedented and send alarm bells ringing in European capitals and beyond.”
This is the background to The WSJ’s Oct. 21 editorial in which they wrote: “Any confab among Messrs. Xi, Putin and Trump that tried to dictate Ukraine’s fate would be a mistake that could plant the seeds for a larger conflict, not unlike the first Yalta that drew lines for the Cold War. All the more so because Messrs. Xi and Putin are working together to undermine America’s interests and influence.
“A new triumvirate that divided the world into spheres of influence would blow up America’s global credibility as a reliable ally. U.S. allies may be punching bags these days, but the U.S. network from NATO to Japan, South Korea and Australia allows America to deter aggression and maintain peace before threats are dire. Any coerced peace in Ukraine would divide NATO and broadcast to America’s Pacific allies that the U.S. is a dangerous friend. As a practical matter we doubt even Mr. Trump could force Ukraine into capitulation, and the President would own the ugly scenes of carnage that followed if he pulled intelligence and targeting help.”
China’s imperialist interests also come into play. The WSJ editors write: “Curb your enthusiasm about a China alliance as well. Mr. Trump might want China’s promise not to help Iran, but what price would the Communist Party chief exact?
“Mr. Xi wants Taiwan in his strategic soul, and he aspires to subdue the island without having to take the risk of a blockade or military assault. Expect Mr. Xi to exploit any opening with Mr. Trump to push the U.S. out of the Pacific, perhaps including less U.S. support for the 23 million free people across the Taiwan Strait.”
Taiwan is crucial for two reasons: First, China’s capture of Taiwan would represent China’s expansion of control over Pacific sea lanes that are vital for world trade. Second, and maybe even more important, is that Taiwan is the world center of manufacture of the most advanced computer chips produced.
Oaklandsocialist has been commenting for some time about Trump’s worldview that Putin can have Europe and he (Trump) gets the Atlantic from Greenland (or possibly the British isles) to all of the Americas, including Canada. Regarding Trump’s alliance with Putin, we wrote over a year ago, “Later to be brought into the deal will be Xi Jin Peng, to whom Asia will be ceded.” Later is now. Trump is prepared to hand the Pacific to China and Europe to Russia, thereby ditching U.S. capitalism’s most important allies – Western Europe and Taiwan, each of which is vital for somewhat different reasons.
Starlink
The role of Elon Musk and Starlink/Starshield should also be considered. Starlink uses Musk’s SpaceX satellites to enable users to communicate around the world. Starshield is a military grade version of Starlink which Musk leased to the US for use in Ukraine. One of the most important features of Starshield is that it enables its user (Ukraine in this case) to link up drones flying at a high rate of speed. Sometime in the week of Oct. 13, Ukraine suddenly found that the high speed ability was drastically reduced, thereby rendering Starshield useless in operating drones either to defend against air attacks or to attack Russia. Both Musk and Trump officials denied any responsibility. However, on Oct. 20 the WSJ published an article entitled “Musk Ordered Starlink Slowdown That Blindsided Ukraine” It is difficult to see that Musk was the one who gave the order since Ukraine was using Starshield (not Starlink), which is operated by the U.S. Regardless of who gave the actual order, the WSJ article makes clear that Musk and Trump officials acted together. “During the uproar, SpaceX representatives called White House counterparts seeking a unified understanding and subsequent message that the company and Trump administration coordinated ahead of Musk’s directive, the people said. Musk himself posted on X hours after the slowdown became public, ‘Any limits on speed or usage are decided by the US military and ultimately POTUS,’ a person familiar with the situation said Musk talked to multiple senior administration officials, including with Trump, before imposing the new speed cap, which Ukrainian officials said had allowed Russian missiles to evade their defenses.”
Elon Musk epitomizes a global capitalist. His most important investment isn’t centered in any one country. Not even a few countries. It’s in space. By both his economic situation and his personal background (South African apartheid) his ideology drives him to the most extreme form of individualism and domination over others. There is another wing of the capitalist class that has moved in that direction. That is the Silicon Valley venture capitalists. Oaklandsocialist discussed their role shortly after Trump was reelected. They tore down a crucial industry – communication and entertainment – and remade it in their image. That combined with the fact that most of them are relatively young means that they have no concept of the role of the working class in history. As a result, they think they can reshape all of society according to their wishes. This is the main base of capitalist support for Trump, although others may pay homage to him in order to get one billion dollar favor or another from him.
World peace?
The personal qualities matter more in the case of any head of state who is largely out of control of the ruling class. Trump’s megalomania and narcissism, exacerbated by his advancing dementia, make him more easily manipulated by Putin and Xi. Trump may think that the three of them can divide up the world peacefully. U.S. capitalists will not voluntarily relinquish their investments in Europe or Asia, nor will Chinese capitalists relinguish their investments in Latin America. Nor will Putin give up his drive to dominate all or Europe plus his military investments throughout Africa. Above all is the competing interests in influencing South West Asia North Africa (SWAMA, aka the “Middle East”). Already a hint of future conflict can be seen in Chinese and Russian support for the Iran regime. Trump may dream of taking credit for a new era of “world peace” but Putin and Xi know better.
As a one-person dictator – aka a bonapartist – Trump marches to his own tune. He is not entirely independent of everybody, but he is more independent than any president in US history ever. What this means for the coming months is impossible to know. It’s possible that Trump’s base has shrunk enough and is so lacking in confidence that it largely constrains him from trying to overturn an unfavorable midterm election result. However, Elon Musk and others around Trump, including Trump’s own family, can ill afford a Democratic-controlled congress initiating committee investigations into their activities. Also, the Trump-Netanyahu war against Iran will play into the perspectives. Trump has said he is planning some action after the midterms. Any renewal of attacks would have to be coordinated with Israel, and on Oct. 19, Hegseth made an unannounced visit to Israel where he met with Netanyahu. Also, at this time Trump/Hegseth are moving 4,000 marines and sailors into the region. Renewed military action seems almost certain, and an outright invasion seems possible. Doing so would cause an uproar here in the United States. Trump, who has repeatedly talked about using the Insurrection Act to declare a state of emergency, would very possibly do so at that time.
Conclusions
The conclusions are these:
- It is impossible to predict what the outcome of the upcoming midterms will be with any certainty. That includes Trump’s response to a likely loss. It also includes accidental/individual factors like Trump’s increasing dementia and Hegseth’s incompetence. Overall, it’s difficult to see how the next few months won’t include different forms of crises and threats.
- It is not in the interests of the US capitalist class to turn over Taiwan to China nor Ukraine to Russia. Nor is it in their interests to overturn capitalist democratic (small “d”) rule, but Trump is entirely capable of violating their interests.
- Both of these possibilities also sharply conflict with the interests of the working class of the United States and of the worldwide working class.
- This is why it’s vital for working class oriented socialists to start discussing these perspectives, including how a working class resistance might develop and how working class oriented socialists can start laying the foundations for that in advance.
