Al Jazeera is giving credibility to ISIS (ISIL) K’s taking responsibility for this terrorist attack. This group has a long history of attacking Russian targets due, first and foremost, to Russia’s role in Syria. They also claimed credit for some terrorist attacks in Iran, which also supports the Assad dictatorship. Putin is claiming that Ukraine was indirectly involved in that they supposedly had arranged a “window” for the escape of the ISIS K attackers. I very, very much doubt this.
One question is whether Putin will try to use this as a pretext to move towards a general mobilization for his war against Ukraine. The other side of the question is to what degree will this seriously weaken Putin domestically. After all, his whole base of support inside Russia has been based on the claim that he has provided stability and security. Now, that claim is literally up in flames, especially so since the US warned against exactly such an attack and Putin dismissed that warning as being a “provocation”.
We also should be aware that the “West” – the US included – is not necessarily immune from such attacks. If one happens inside the US – or at a US target outside the US (e.g. a military base) – I think it will strengthen Trump. That would also serve the interests of ISIS and all other Muslim nationalist groups. These reactionary nationalist forces all reinforce each other; they provide a basis for the existence of each other.
A lot more to be said as we learn more about this.
I also talked with Ilya Budraitskis, Russian refugee living in Berkeley, CA. Here is what he said:
- “It is very clear that Putin was completely unprepared for this attack. He had made an address just 20 hours before the attack… The Russian security apparatus [FSB, etc.] was not able to prevent this attack despite the warnings from the US embassy…
- Putin has a long record of using such attacks, for example the 2004 terrorist attack in which over 1000 hostages were held…. Putin used this to cancel direct election of governors.
- The narrative that Ukraine and/or the US was behind this attack is all over the Russian media.
- Another direction [of Putin] will be against the labor migrants from Central Asia. All those arrested are from Tajikistan. It is too early to know if they were all involved or if they were just arrested at random. There are over 1 million labor migrants in Russia from this region. The already are the main objects of racist propaganda and already there is a call to strengthen the border with central Asia. The four who were arrested were 100 miles from Moscow [and apparently headed for Ukraine]. The others look like ordinary labor migrants.
- All of this will be used to increase repression against the opposition. For example a there is already a call for restoration of the death penalty in Russia.
- It is unlikely that this will weaken Putin very much. He is well prepared to use any catastrophe or terrorist attack in his own interest…. He is portraying this attack as part of a global super conspiracy against Russia.